Eastern Europe Economic Update - Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia Face Different Challenges

М. : Sberbank CIB, 2014.

Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S.

Под общей редакцией: Гавриленков Е. Е.

>Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.

Ключевые слова: macroeconomic policy, deflation, recession, new growth model