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Найдено 48 публикаций
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Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 2. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Economic growth in Azerbaijan softened to 1.1% in 2015 from 2.8% in 2014. GDP will likely contract in 2016, as domestic demand is set to be negatively affected by the manat devaluation and fiscal consolidation.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

In all three countries, inflation will remain at a low level both this year and in 2015. The disinflation environment, however, may exacerbate problems in the fiscal sphere, especially on the back of sluggish economic performance. This will be important for Croatia and Serbia, where budget expenditures (and hence deficits) will increase this year. Slovenia, on the other hand, is demonstrating stronger fiscal discipline.

Добавлено: 29 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. April 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Добавлено: 13 августа 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.
Добавлено: 28 мая 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

>Poland. The Polish economy is growing like a DM economy, while Bulgaria is still searching for a new growth model. Unlike many other countries, Poland was able to avoid recession in 2008-09, and it continues to demonstrate sustainable growth, albeit the threat of deflation exists. Polish economic growth is expected to accelerate this year, supported by a strong performance in construction. Consistent and strong macroeconomic policy kept the country's debt/GDP ratios at bay during the crisis, and has contributed to steady deleveraging in recent years. > Bulgaria. Bulgaria's economic growth remains slow, and after a sharp correction in 2009 the economy saw little restructuring in recent years. There has been deflation since mid-2013, but economic growth is set to accelerate this year to around 1.5%, which could offset the negative impact of deflation on the budget. The country's industrial output improved in 2013-14, but domestic demand has weakened in recent months. > Latvia. Latvia's economic growth still remains strong but may decelerate this year as a side effect of instability in the region and mounting complications in relations between Russia and the EU. Heavily indebted Latvia tightened its macroeconomic policy in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and remains committed to maintaining macro stability, having joined the Eurozone. Deflation cannot be ruled out as a result.

Добавлено: 29 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. February 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.

Increasing volatility on financial markets, uncertainty about Greece's debt restructuring and economic slowdown, and currency depreciation in the CIS region have put growth prospects in Poland and Latvia at risk. However, Poland has more flexibility to respond to these challenges, as it has an independent monetary policy and weaker links with the CIS.

Добавлено: 13 августа 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. May 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Добавлено: 13 августа 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Sberbank CIB, 2013.

There is a growing consensus that the major European economies will continue to stage a recovery in 2014, which will help smaller countries bounce back. The Bulgarian government has approved a budget for 2014 that envisages GDP growth of 1.8%. This number is above the 0.5% y-o-y reported for 9m13 and 0.8% seen in 3Q13, but is still relatively unimpressive for a country with relatively low GDP per capita (around $7,000 in 2012). Moreover, achieving this level of growth is not a foregone conclusion, as it will depend on the economic situation in Germany and Bulgaria's other major trade partners, particularly as the government expects growth to be driven by exports and improvements in the tourism sector

Добавлено: 28 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Despite the seemingly improving economic situation in Germany, a major trade partner of East European countries, economic trends in Slovenia, Hungary, Romania and Croatia have not changed much in recent months apart from some signs of a slightly deeper contraction in Slovenia and a bit of a stronger performance in Hungary. The formerly strong links between Germany and these countries' growth rates are gradually becoming weaker, pointing to a sort of "decoupling" between the core and peripheral European countries amid slowly changing foreign trade flows. German exporters are no longer benefiting from credit expansion in Eastern Europe and are increasing trade with faster-growing Asian economies, while growing trade with non-EU countries helped ease economic difficulties and/or supported growth in some East European countries (which have been able to expand trade with non-EU countries). Domestic demand remains subdued in most countries.

Добавлено: 28 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

> Georgia. Georgia's $16 bln economy saw strong annual growth in 2010-12 of around 6-7%, but in 2013 growth slowed to 3.2%, which is still good but not enough for an economy with a GDP per capita of around $3,600. Indeed, over the year, Georgia - which depends heavily on capital inflows - failed to utilize its competitive advantage of lower unit labor costs than in other countries in the region, such as Turkey and Bulgaria. > Turkey. The Turkish economy performed well in 1H14 as industrial output rose 3.8% y-o-y (down from 5.3% y-o-y in 5m14). GDP climbed 4.3% y-o-y in 1Q14, and we estimate 2Q14 to show GDP growth just below 4.0%. We expect 3.7% for 2014 as a whole, which is a bit stronger than we expected early in the year. > Bulgaria. Similar to some other smaller economies in the region, Bulgaria benefited from a recovery in the Eurozone that was characterized by ECB President Mario Draghi on August 7 as "moderate and uneven." Bulgarian GDP picked up to around 1.4% y-o-y in 1H14 (1.2% in 1Q14 and 1.6% in 2Q14). Given that Bulgaria's currency is pegged to the euro, the country was unable to extract benefits from this recovery to the same extent as some other countries, such as Turkey, Hungary or Romania, whose monetary policy and exchange rates are more independent. In 2H14, Bulgaria will face additional pressure from potentially slower growth in the EU as policy makers in the West and Russia continue experiments with sanctions.

Добавлено: 29 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.
Добавлено: 28 мая 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2014.

Hungary, Romania and Turkey, which previously had much in common (including huge external imbalances), now seem to be following different paths. Hungary was able to orchestrate a fast but painful transition to a positive current account (and thus stabilized its external debt/GDP ratio), Romania's current account deficit has decreased, although the balance remains negative, and Turkey is still struggling to finance its external deficit of over 7% of GDP.

Добавлено: 28 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Poland was one of the few Eastern bloc countries to avoid a recession during the transitional period following the collapse of communism, having returned to growth already in 1993. The country also posted 1.6% growth in 2009, after which GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% on average in 2010-2011. However, it decelerated last year to 1.9%, and this year the economy is expected to expand roughly 1.2%. Overall, we expect Polish GDP in real terms to end this year 2.5 times the size it was in 1992.

Добавлено: 29 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2013.

Poland was one of the few Eastern bloc countries to avoid a recession during the transitional period following the collapse of communism, having returned to growth already in 1993. The country also posted 1.6% growth in 2009, after which GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% on average in 2010-2011. However, it decelerated last year to 1.9%, and this year the economy is expected to expand roughly 1.2%. Overall, we expect Polish GDP in real terms to end this year 2.5 times the size it was in 1992.

Добавлено: 28 августа 2014
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Lomivorotov R. et al. Iss. June 2015. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2015.
Добавлено: 13 августа 2015
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 5. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Both Georgia and Azerbaijan saw GDP growth decelerate in 2015 due to negative external factors. Azerbaijan's economy continued to contract in 1Q16, but Georgia showed some signs of recovery. As oil prices have stabilized above $40/bbl, pressure on the Azeri manat has eased. Pressure on the Georgian lari has also eased, and the currency has even strengthened, allowing the National Bank to cut the key policy rate.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016
Книга
Stroutchenevski A., Gavrilenkov E., Konygin S. Sberbank CIB, 2016.

The economies of Hungary and Romania continued to diverge in 1Q16, as we had expected. Hungarian GDP slowed to 0.9% y-o-y, while Romanian GDP advanced 4.3% y-o-y. Bulgarian GDP rose by 3.0% y-o-y, in line with previous quarters. All three countries were negatively affected by the decline in EU funding, due to the previous funding program having ended in 2015. The lower funding led to a decline in public investments. Household consumption, however, continued to recover and in fact became the major growth driver for all three

Добавлено: 11 августа 2016
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A, Konygin S. Iss. 3. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Economic growth in Hungary and Bulgaria will likely decelerate in 2016 due to a slowdown of public investment financed by EU funds. The Romanian economy, meanwhile, is expected to grow faster on the back of additional fiscal stimulus.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 1. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

We expect economic growth to remain strong in Poland and Latvia in 2016. Despite this robust growth, the new Polish government is likely to soften monetary and fiscal policies to further stimulate the economy, in our view. In 2015, the Latvian economy demonstrated strong resilience to external shocks.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 6. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

A decline in EU funding in 2016 has driven a contraction in infrastructure investment in both Poland and Latvia. As a result, GDP growth in both countries slowed in 1Q16. Household consumption, meanwhile, continues to advance, thanks to rising wages and lower unemployment. Economic growth is expected to accelerate again in 2017, however, due to a recovery in EU budget expenditures.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016
Книга
Gavrilenkov E., Stroutchenevski A., Konygin S. Iss. 4. M.: Sberbank CIB, 2016.

Serbian and Croatian GDP growth picked up to 0.7% and 1.6%, respectively, in 2015, while growth in Slovenia slowed slightly, to 2.9%. We expect Serbia and Croatia to remain on the upswing in 2016, while for Slovenia we see growth decelerating further due to a drop in EU funding. Household consumption should be the major driver for all three economies.

Добавлено: 12 августа 2016