• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Обычная версия сайта
Найдены 44 публикации
Сортировка:
по названию
по году
Статья
Saritas O., Dranev Y., Chulok A.A. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 5. P. 473-490.
Добавлено: 12 сентября 2017
Статья
Bokov M. B., Razheva (Edelkina) A., Klubova M. et al. Foresight. 2014. Vol. 16. No. 5. P. 448-461.
Добавлено: 3 октября 2014
Статья
Aydogdu A., Burmaoglu S., Saritas O. et al. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 4. P. 354-375.
Добавлено: 1 марта 2019
Статья
Gaskstatter S., Maxim Kotzemir, Meissner D. Foresight. 2014. Vol. 16. No. 4. P. 293-308.

The paper undertakes an analysis of the attempts of GCC and BRIC countries to catch up in their national development to build an innovation-driven economy on which to base future growth and wealth. We conducted an analysis of GCC and BRIC countries to show the different strategies leaders have taken to try and achieve this aspiration. This paper analyses the various aspects of national innovation systems of BRIC and GCC countries, highlights similar and different approaches – and attempts to quantify their success. For example, GCC countries spend extensively on research and development, but have so far achieved less than meaningful results. Brazil, China and India are catching up to the acknowledged world leaders in innovation, but Russia is lagging.

Counter-intuitively, we will argue that the push towards an innovation-based economy is actually not dependent on total expenditure on R&D, but rather relies on the efficient allocation of investments and the rigorous implementation of innovation strategy. And we will demonstrate this by showing our ideas in relation to both BRIC and GCC countries.

This analysis raises fascinating points of discussion for those looking to build an innovation economy in other countries, and has practical implications for policy maker and policy implementers in all countries.

Добавлено: 24 октября 2013
Статья
Calof J. L. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 6. P. 577-589.
Добавлено: 26 октября 2018
Статья
Calof J. L., Meissner D., Vishnevskiy K. Foresight. 2020. Vol. 22. No. 1. P. 14-36.

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a detailed case study of a corporate foresight for innovation (CFI) project done by the Higher School of Economics’ (HSE) (Moscow, Russia) corporate foresight (CF) unit for a large state-owned Russian service company. It demonstrates how CFI methods lead to recommendations and how these recommendations result in decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing from being part of the project team, review of the project documents and interviews, the case describes a multi-phased CFI project which incorporated several CF methods. Techniques used for the project itself included grand challenges and trend analysis, analysis of best practices through use of benchmarking and horizon scanning, interviews, expert panels, wild card and weak signals analysis, cross impact analysis, SWOT and backcasting. The project used a broad-base of secondary information, expert panels consisting of company experts and HSE CF team personnel, interviews with senior management and an extensive literature review using HSE’s propriety iFORA system.

Findings

In all 17 CFI recommendation and over 100 implementation recommendations were made; 94 per cent of the CFI recommendations were accepted with most implemented at the time this case was written. The case also identifies five enabling factors that collectively both helped the CFI project and led to a high rate of recommendation acceptance and one factor that hindered CFI project success.

Practical implications

The case study provides detailed information and insight that can help others in conducting CF for innovation projects and establishes a link between CF methods and innovation-based recommendations and subsequent decisions.

Originality/value

In-depth case studies that show academe and practitioners how CFI leads to recommendations and is linked to subsequent decisions have been identified as a gap in the literature. This paper therefore seeks to address this need by presenting a detailed CF case for a corporate innovation project.

Добавлено: 27 февраля 2020
Статья
Meissner D., Rudnik P. B. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 5. P. 457-472.

Purpose – Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system.

Findings – Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures.

Originality/value – The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.

Добавлено: 5 октября 2017
Статья
Miles I. D. Foresight. 2012. Vol. 14. No. 1. P. 69-81.

Purpose – This paper aims to depict foresight programmes as extended service encounters between foresight practitioners, sponsors, and other stakeholders. The implications of this perspective for evaluating the outcomes of such programmes are to be explored.

Design/methodology/approach – The range of activities comprising foresight is reviewed, along with the various objectives that may underpin these activities. The more substantial foresight programmes are seen in terms of a series of steps, in each of which various partners can be involved in generating service outcomes and later steps of the process. The arguments are illustrated with insights drawn from various cases.

Findings – A foresight programme is likely to feed into more than one policy process, so that the foresight activities can be linked to various stages of the policy cycles, as well as engaging participants with different degrees of influence on the policies in question. The outcomes of the foresight activity are also heavily shaped by the degree of involvement of various stakeholders, not least the sponsoring agency and any other groups it seeks to mobilise. Seeing foresight as a service activity brings to the fore the notion of co-production, and the importance of the design of the service encounters involved.

Research limitations/implications – The task of evaluating foresight is a challenging one, and comparison of foresight activities needs to bear in mind the different scale, scope, and ambitions of different programmes. Simple static comparison of formal inputs and outputs will miss much of the value and value-added of the activity.

Practical implications – A dynamic approach to evaluation stresses the learning of lessons about the roles of multiple stakeholders – and the responsibilities of sponsors as well as practitioners. Originality/value – Foresight programmes are frequently commissioned, and often have significant influence on decision-making. Attempts to systematically evaluate these efforts have begun, and this essay stresses the need to be aware of the complex interactive nature of foresight, highlighted by viewing it in service terms.
Добавлено: 18 декабря 2012
Статья
Makarova E. A., Sokolova A. Foresight. 2014. Vol. 16. No. 1. P. 75-91.
Добавлено: 24 февраля 2014
Статья
Ravetz J., Miles I. D. Foresight. 2016. Vol. 18. No. 5. P. 469-490.

Purpose

This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method.

Findings

The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence.

Practical implications

The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis.

Originality/value

The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.

 

Добавлено: 25 сентября 2016
Статья
Saritas O., Kuzminov I. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 218-250.
Добавлено: 23 июня 2017
Статья
Kuzminov I., Bereznoy A., Bakhtin P. D. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 174-197.
Добавлено: 20 октября 2016
Статья
Miles I. D. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 5. P. 437-440.

The papers in this special issue of Foresight represent the most detailed accounts to appear in the English language, to date, of the Foresight and related futures analyses that have been undertaken in contemporary Russia. The Russian Federation has set out to undertake a remarkable range of such activities in the past decade, and both the approaches adopted and the results obtained are of interest for many reasons.

Добавлено: 27 декабря 2017
Статья
Ena O., Abdrakhmanova G. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 121-138.
Добавлено: 27 марта 2017
Статья
Burmaoglu S., Saritas O., Sesen H. Foresight. 2020. Vol. 22. No. 2. P. 189-204.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to discuss the possibility of setting up a platform for inclusive policymaking process drawing upon the blockchain concept. The study posits that blockchain also has great potentials in non-financial applications, such as in policymaking, where there is a need for bottom-up approaches with more decentralized, distributed and evidence-based processes.

Design/methodology/approach

The study makes use of an analogy-based creative design methodology. The design science paradigm has its roots in engineering and the sciences of the artificial (Simon, 1996). As a problem-solving paradigm for solving complex engineering issues, design science seeks to create innovations that define the ideas, practices, technical capabilities and products through which the analysis, design, implementation and use of information systems can be effectively and efficiently accomplished. In the present study, the policy development theories and the logic of blockchain are synthesized to prepare a task model for the “IdeaChain” concept as a platform for creating, sharing and validating novel ideas as well as converting them into policies or new ventures through the funding mechanisms.

Findings

The IdeaChain concept is designed and demonstrated through its use in the domain of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy, which can be extended to cover all innovative activities linking the whole process from their emergence, funding, development, implementation and impact upon policy.

Originality/value

Blockchain is mostly discussed in literature with its impact on financial sector. IdeaChain is the first attempt to explore the potentials of blockchain in STI policymaking.

Добавлено: 16 июня 2020
Статья
Miles I. D., Belousova V., Chichkanov N. Foresight. 2018. Vol. 20. No. 1. P. 1-26.
Добавлено: 22 февраля 2018
Статья
Miles I. D., Belousova V., Chichkanov N. Foresight. 2019. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 377-408.

Purpose – The literature on knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) shows them to be major innovators; this is confirmed with recent data, which the authors use to examine the various types of innovation that KIBS undertake. The implications for employment and work in highly innovative industries are important topics for analysis, not least because we are in a period where dramatic claims are being made as to the implications of new technologies for professional occupations. Thus, this paper aims to address major debates and conclusions concerning innovation patterns in KIBS and the evolving structures of professional and other work in these industries.

Design/methodology/approach – This essay combines literature review with presentation and discussion of statistics that throw light on the patterns of innovation that characterise KIBS. The authors also consider data that concern trends in the organisation of work in these industries; while the focus is mainly on KIBS firms, they also pay some attention to KIBS-like work in other sectors. Even though KIBS are distinctive industries in modern economies, these analyses can be related to more general studies of, and forecasts about, changes in work organisation.

Findings – The authors show that innovation patterns and employment structures vary substantially across different types of KIBS, with the distinction between technological, professional and creative KIBS proving to be useful for capturing these differences. The authors are also able to demonstrate important long- and medium-term trends in the structure and activities of the KIBS industries. In particular, data clearly demonstrate the increasing share of professional as against associate and clerical workers in most KIBS. Evidence also suggests that polarisation trends across the economy are mirrored, and in some cases amplified, in KIBS. The future prospects for employment in KIBS, and for professional work in particular, are seen to involve multiple factors, which together may bring about substantial change.

Research limitations/implications – The study involves literature review and industry-level statistical analysis. Future work would benefit from firm-level analysis and validation and explication of results via consultation with practitioners and users of KIBS. Some puzzling variations across countries and sectors will need to be explored with national and sectoral experts.

Practical implications – Research into KIBS activities, and their future, should make more use of the extensive statistics on employment and other structural features of the industries that have become available in recent years. KIBS firms and practitioners will need to take account of the forces for change that are liable to restructure their activities.

Originality/value – The literature on KIBS has been concentrated on a rather narrow range of issues, while analysis of the current contributions and future development of the industries requires attention to a wider range of topics. This paper suggests how these topics may be investigated and their implications explored and presents results of enquiries along these lines

Добавлено: 25 марта 2019
Статья
Sagieva G. S., Kotsemir M. N. Foresight. 2018. Vol. 20. No. 4. P. 416-442.
Добавлено: 7 августа 2018
Статья
Dranev Y., Levin A., Kuchin I. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 6. P. 615-627.
Добавлено: 19 сентября 2017
Статья
Calof J. L. Foresight. 2017. Vol. 19. No. 1. P. 31-47.

Purpose: This paper aims to present a categorization scheme and use it to classify Canadian Government (federal and provincial) competitive intelligence (CI) programs and to also look at the impact of these programs on sectoral and regional economic development.

Design/methodology/approach: Based on the author’s 25 years of experience designing, running, and studying Canadian Government CI programs, a classification scheme to classify these programs has been developed and used. Also, by using program review information, this paper looks at evidence for program impact on regional and sectoral economic development.

Findings: This paper identifies a broad range of federal and provincially sponsored CI programs aimed at helping both government officers and those outside the department make better decisions. The review identified several roles that the government can play in using CI: creator of CI (both for their own purposes and also for helping Canadian companies), CI environment skills builder (helping Canadian companies develop skills in developing their own CI) and CI partner (working jointly with Canadian companies in developing CI). While there have not been many formal program reviews of the CI programs sponsored by Canadian Government departments and agencies, anecdotal evidence (from training program participant evaluations) and a comprehensive review of a small community CI-based economic development program support positive sectoral and regional economic development results arising from these programs.

Practical implications: CI programs can be used as part of a government’s regional and sectoral economic development approach. CI can be used to assist with decision-making both within and outside the government. This paper identifies several different kinds of programs that can be used to further a government’s economic development agenda.

Originality/value: There are very few articles that examine how governments have helped companies to develop CI and how they have used CI, and none has looked at the impact of these on regional and sectoral economic development. This paper, based on the author’s experiences, provides a view of the Canadian programs and their impact on regional/sectoral economic development. 

Добавлено: 22 мая 2017
Статья
Cheah S. L., Yang Y., Saritas O. Foresight. 2019. Vol. 21. No. 3. P. 332-361.

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss a foresight study conducted in Singapore’s national R&D agency to help science and technology decision makers identify key capability areas of R&D investment to support the manufacturing industry’s growth in the country and the region.

Design/methodology/approach

Using horizon scanning, scenario analysis and expert opinion, nine capabilities are identified as core areas to be developed to support the country’s future growth of product-service systems.

Findings

The results of a Delphi survey involving 30 industry and academic thought leaders recommend priorities of these capabilities. This paper concludes with a discussion of the study implications for theory, research and practice in the domain of servitisation and product-service systems.

Research limitations/implications

The foresight study presented here on the future of servitisation in Singapore demonstrates one of the first fully fledged applications of foresight in constructing a coherent vision of future product-service system markets. In this study, the authors applied systemic foresight methodology (SFM) comprising the first six phases: initiation (scoping), intelligence (scanning), imagination (scenarios), integration (priorities), interpretation (strategies) and implementation (action).For future research, an ideal step would be to proceed with the final phase of the SFM, impact, to develop indicators for servitisation and to monitor and evaluate the transition process.

Practical implications

Manufacturing and services are no longer distinct concepts with a clear divide. Manufacturing firms not only become more service dependent but also produce and provide services for their consumers. This transformation towards servitisation implies fundamental re-organisation of the production and management practices. Furthermore, through new business models, new and loyal customers will be gained, which will in turn bring additional income, while making the companies less prone to economic and business fluctuations.

Social implications

The results of this study have practical implications for policymakers of public and private sectors that are interested in playing a key role in future product-service system innovation. These have implications for developing the human and intellectual capital that are required for supporting the future innovation. Institutes of higher learning and vocational institutes should also consider incorporating new curricula and modules to build the capabilities for knowledge creation and transfer.

Originality/value

The findings of the present study on strategic growth areas and relevant critical capabilities provide new directions for research in the field of servitisation. Among the nine capabilities identified, the top three were advanced customer intelligence capability, socio-physical service quality, traceability and maintainability and integrated strategic decision-making. From the results, it is apparent that advanced customer intelligence capability is both an area of importance to Singapore and the world.

Добавлено: 5 сентября 2019