Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?

Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie. 2019. Vol. 5. No. 1. P. 67–87.

Холодилин К. А.

Ten years after the world financial and economic crisis, which was triggered by the US real estate crisis, more and more concerns are raised due to the worldwide housing price increases. In this article, using the OECD data for 20 countries it is shown that these concerns are not without ground: In eight countries, the housing price dynamics point out to a speculative investor behavior. Above all, a high indebtedness of the private households and very low interest rates give indications of a new speculative bubble in many countries. In Germany, there are also price overvaluations, although in the first place in big metropolis. The economic risks, however, are not too high thanks to a much lower indebtedness of German private households. Nevertheless, there is still a room for improvements. Albeit it is already possible to restrict the credit supply using tools of macroprudential policy, the corresponding toolkit is not complete, for clear rules, which would identify the critical point for starting a regulatory intervention, are still missing.

Ключевые слова: early warning system, система раннего оповещения, Speculative housing price bubbles, explosive roots test, panel probit model, спекулятивные пузыри на рынке жилья, тест на взрывные корни, панельная пробит-модель