Political Business Cycles in Russia: Employing a Rational Voter Model

Russian Politics. 2024. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 478–502.

Turovsky R. F., Sukhova M.

This paper focuses on political business cycles (PBC) in Russia’s regions. It demonstrates that regional budget expenditures are conditional upon federal electoral cycles, with the most and least pronounced effects observed during presidential and subnational elections respectively. Since they became most discernible following the 2009 crisis, political business cycles have evolved until the recent presidential elections. As for regional authorities, they have primarily utilized the cycles by increasing expenditures on infrastructure rather than public sector spending, with education being the notable exception. Regression analysis indicates that infrastructure spending positively influences support for pro-regime candidates in presidential elections, while certain social expenditures benefit United Russia in regional legislative elections. This study highlights the role of PBC s in reinforcing performance-based legitimacy for the Russian regime.

Keywords: public expenditure, budget policy, regional budgets, economic voting, political business cycle