Бюджетная политика и экономический рост в России. Оптимальное бюджетное правило

Экономика и математические методы. 2019. Т. 55. № 2. С. 24–42.

Скрыпник Д. В.

The article shows that actual public expenditure in the period of rapid oil prices growth of the 2000s was
less than the optimal level in Russia. The macroeconomic model of Russian economy is the basis of current
research. The main mechanism of growth in an optimum scenario is associated with the scaling effect
of public expenditure, which increases production possibilities of an economy. Adequate monetary policy
allows preventing unwinding of the inflation spiral and runs the growth spiral. Non-optimality of fiscal
policy is a consequence of budget rule mechanism features, which do not take into account the influence
of government expenditures on economic growth. The fiscal rule that implements the “closed loop” control
and allows constructing the optimal economic policies for developing countries can become a basis
for the system of growth management that combines universal and program planning. The key principle
of optimal budget rule must be “tâtonnement” like process of budget parameters choice.

Keywords: бюджетная политика, макроэкономическая модель, budget policy, бюджетное правило, Optimal control, оптимальное управление с обратной связью, Budget rule, Macroeconomic models