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Time-Transformed Test for Bubbles under Non-stationary Volatility
Journal of Financial Econometrics. 2023. Vol. 21. No. 4. P. 1282–1307.
This paper is devoted to testing for bubbles under time-varying non-stationary volatility. Because the limiting distribution of the seminal Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) test depends on the variance function and usually requires a bootstrap implementation under heteroskedasticity, we construct the test based on a deformation of the time domain. The proposed test is asymptotically pivotal under the null hypothesis and its limiting distribution coincides with that of the standard test under homoskedasticity, so that the test does not require computationally extensive methods for inference. Appealing finite sample properties are demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulations. An empirical application demonstrates that the upsurge behavior of cryptocurrency time series in the middle of the sample is partially explained by the volatility change.
Keywords: Time series analysis
Mikhail V. Sokolov, Engineering Economist 2026 Vol. 71 No. 2 P. 159–173
The payback period is unambiguously defined for conventional investment projects—projects in which a series of cash outflows is followed by a series of cash inflows. Its definition for nonconventional projects is more challenging, since their balances (cumulative cash flow streams) may have multiple break-even points. Academics and practitioners offer a few contradictory recipes to manage ...
Added: May 28, 2026
Давидович А. С., Shestakova A., Arzumanyan N. et al., Frontiers in Psychology 2026 Vol. 17 - 2026 P. 1–18
Background:
Delay discounting refers to the tendency to choose sooner, smaller rewards over larger, later rewards. Many previous studies link this tendency positively to reward sensitivity, yet the specific mechanisms behind this association remain poorly understood. Reward sensitivity may relate to delay discounting through at least three possible pathways: increased sensitivity to reward size, increased sensitivity ...
Added: May 27, 2026
Tatarinov A., Вопросы статистики 2026 Т. 33 № 2 С. 5–22
The relevance of the article stems from the ongoing transition of national statistical offices to the implementation of the new international macroeconomic accounting standard, SNA 2025. This standard defines modern approaches to measuring economic activity in the context of globalization and digitalization and incorporates assessments of well‑being and sustainability. The subject of the paper is the ...
Added: May 27, 2026
Degtyarev A., Bakhurin S., Yudin N., DSPA 2026 P. 1–6
This paper investigates one possible solution to the problem of self-interference cancellation (SIC) arising in the design of in-band full-duplex (IBFD) communication systems. Self-interference cancellation is performed in the digital domain using multilayer nonlinear models adapted via gradient-based optimization. The presence of local minima and saddle points during the adaptation of multilayer models limits the ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2026 № 1 С. 45–55
Rosstat's publication of basic input–output tables for 2021, given the five-year periodicity of such materials, represents a significant event for Russian economic science. The article provides an overview of some of the features and properties of the published tables and the results of their use for the analysis of technological changes and import dependence. It ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Tkachuk A., Романова В. В., Экономические науки 2026 № 2 С. 561–565
Актуальность статьи обусловлена трансформацией мирохозяйственных связей под влиянием
Китая. Степень разработанности отражена в полярных оценках экспансии КНР. Объект — экономическая экспансия Китая, предмет — модели взаимодействия со странами Глобального Юга.
Методология базируется на геоэкономическом подходе и концепции асимметричной взаимозависимости. Практическая значимость заключается в выявлении рисков долговой и технологической
зависимости и рекомендациях для стран-партнеров по выстраиванию сбалансированного сотрудничества. ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы экономики 2025 № 8 С. 26–43
The study of the consequences of the application of individual sanctions instruments at the level of industries or segments of the economy allows us to assess the components and factors of overall sustainability, the effectiveness of the state policy. The paper provides an econometric assessment of the impact of US SDN list sanctions on Russian ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2024 № 1 С. 35–53
The dynamics of the Russian economy in 2022 did not develop along the trajectories expected in most forecasts. Investments in fixed assets, contrary to expectations, decreased slightly; some industries have seen growth. The article offers an analysis of the 2022 results from the point of view of justification of views on the factors determining investment ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Проблемы прогнозирования 2024 № 2 С. 21–33
The article discusses issues related to the assessment of import dependence and the results of the import substitution policy in the period 2016–2020. An overview of options for assessing import dependence indicators is provided, and the possibility of using resource and use tables published by Rosstat is substantiated. The main analysis tool is calculated tables ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 7 С. 100–114
The paper assesses some of the consequences of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion about its costs and benefits happened during the WTO negotiations and in the first years after the accession, there was little said on the real consequences afterwards. The aim of the research is to assess the ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Общество и экономика 2023 № 4 С. 53–63
The withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market due to a change in the political situation has been a new trend for the Russian economy. The study shows that the actual scale of closure of foreign legal entities is insignificant, and even smaller than in previous years: the maximum number of legal entities was ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Kalinin A. M., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2023 № 3 С. 7–25
Customer-centricity (client-centricity) is a new concept for Russian public governance. However, since 2022, the implementation of the relevant principles has been brought to the level of a national strategic initiative. The article proposes an analysis of the issues to be considered when implementing customer-centricity in the practice of government agencies and institutions. The article examines ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Ilyashenko Y., Shilin I., Stanislav Minkov, Russian Journal of Mathematical Physics 2026 Vol. 33 No. 1 P. 89–106
In this paper, new numerical invariants of structurally unstable vector fields in the plane
are found. One of the main tools is an improved asymptotics of sparkling saddle connections that
occur when a separatrix loop of a hyperbolic saddle breaks. Another main tool is a new topological
invariant of two arithmetic progressions, both perturbed and unperturbed, on the ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Styrin E. M., Ataeva A., Жатикова Д. В. et al., Регион: Экономика и Социология 2026 № 2(130) С. 31–55
There remains a pronounced interregional differentiation in the level of digital development across the Russian Federation, which necessitates a comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing the digital maturity of public administration bodies in the country’s regions. This article offers a quantitative assessment of the impact of external socioeconomic, institutional, and technological factors on the level ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Gusev I., Maksaev A., Promyslov V., Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2025 Vol. 299 No. 6
The regular graph of the space of n × m matrices over a field F is defined as the undirected graph whose vertices are matrices of rank min(n, m), and distinct matrices A and B are connected by an edge if and only if rk(A + B) < min(n, m). In this paper, for |F| ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Switzerland: Springer Publishing Company, 2026.
In this volume of “Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems” we are pleased to present the proceedings of the 25th International Multidisciplinary Conference on Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication” (RelStat-2025), which took place in hybrid form in Riga, Latvia on October 16–18, 2025. This event belongs to a con ference series started in ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Шелованова Т. И., Синяков А. А., Russian Journal of Economics 2025 No. 11 P. 47–75
The booming retail trade and the above-target consumer prices inflation in 2023–2024 in Russia, amid tightening monetary policy stance, raise an issue of the strength of the monetary policy interest rate channel. The focus of our paper is the interest rate elasticity (given inflation expectations) of a household’s loan request probability. We argue that a ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Ibragimov R., Distaso W., Skrobotov A. et al., Plos One 2022 Vol. 17 No. 12 P. e0275516–0
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Dependence Modeling 2023 Vol. 11 No. 1 Article 20220152
This review discusses methods of testing for explosive bubbles in time series. A large number of recently developed testing methods under various assumptions about innovation of errors are covered. The review also considers the methods for dating explosive (bubble) regimes. Special attention is devoted to time-varying volatility in the errors. Moreover, the modelling of possible ...
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Skrobotov A., Communications in Statistics-Theory and Method 2022 Vol. 52 No. 17 P. 5952–5965
Added: November 16, 2024
Kurozumi E., Skrobotov A., Journal of Time Series Analysis 2023 Vol. 44 No. 4 P. 359–373
In this study, we extend the three-regime bubble model of Pang et al. (2021, Journal of Econometrics, 221(1):227–311) to allow the forth regime followed by the unit root process after recovery. We provide the asymptotic and finite sample justification of the consistency of the collapse date estimator in the two-regime AR(1) model. The consistency allows us to ...
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Skrobotov A., Economics Letters 2022 Vol. 212 P. 110276–0
Added: November 16, 2024
Shabanov N., Sergey A. Bartalev, Kobayashi H. et al., IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 2023 Vol. 61 Article 4405717
Forest is a multi-layered canopy, where overstory and understory implement different biogeochemical cycles, phenology and functional role. Remote sensing products typically estimate forest total Leaf Area Index (LAI), while few quantify its components. The theoretical understanding of foliage distribution between layers is still quite limited. In this study we’ve developed a semi-empirical model for decomposition ...
Added: July 5, 2023
Dyatchkova N., Grishunin S., Karminsky A. M., , in: 6th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative ManagementIssue 139: 6th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management.: United States of America: Editions Elsevier, 2018. P. 17–24.
The main goal of this paper is to study interconnections between credit ratings and financial indicators of industrial companies from BRICS countries. We use method of patterns, one of the modern methods of nonlinear modeling, to identify groups of heterogeneous objects with different influence on ratings. Additionally, in this research, we evaluate Tobit regression model ...
Added: November 15, 2019