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On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators
Journal of Time Series Analysis. 2023. Vol. 44. No. 4. P. 359–373.
Kurozumi E., Skrobotov A.
In this study, we extend the three-regime bubble model of Pang et al. (2021, Journal of Econometrics, 221(1):227–311) to allow the forth regime followed by the unit root process after recovery. We provide the asymptotic and finite sample justification of the consistency of the collapse date estimator in the two-regime AR(1) model. The consistency allows us to split the sample before and after the date of collapse and to consider the estimation of the date of exuberation and date of recovery separately. We have also found that the limiting behavior of the recovery date varies depending on the extent of explosiveness and recovering.
Keywords: Time series analysis
Makarov I. A., Россия в глобальной политике 2026 Т. 24 № 4 (140) С. 164–182
Три с половиной года остаётся до 2030-го – окончания срока реализации Целей устойчивого развития (ЦУР) – главной международной инициативы, устанавливающей долгосрочные ориентиры для будущего человечества. Уже очевидно, что она провалилась: преодоление бедности, решение экологических проблем и построение инклюзивного и справедливого общества остались красивой мечтой. Кто-то может воспринимать ЦУР как памятник человеческой наивности. Но надо понимать, что эта ...
Added: September 14, 2026
Fedorova E., Ledyaeva S., Stepanov V., International Review of Economics and Finance 2026
This study investigates the influence of low-quality information, specifically fake news, on short
term stock returns, contributing to the discourse on signal theory and behavioral economics.
Employing a machine learning approach, the authors developed a robust fake news dataset from
publicly available sources. Sentiment analysis was conducted using a FinBERT model fine-tuned
for stock market contexts, alongside extensive dataset ...
Added: September 12, 2026
Смирнов С. В., Миллионщиков Д. В., Уфимский математический журнал 2021 Т. 13 № 2 С. 44–73
В данной работе изучаются характеристические алгебры для систем экспоненциального типа, соответствующих вырожденным матрицам Картана. Эти системы обобщают хорошо известные в теории интегрируемых систем гиперболические уравнения синус-Гордон и Цицейки. Для таких систем, соответствующих матрицам Картана ранга 2, характеристические алгебры описаны явно в терминах образующих и соотношений, и доказано, что они имеют линейный рост. Исследуется связь между ...
Added: September 11, 2026
Смирнов С. В., Glasgow Mathematical Journal 2026 Vol. 68 No. 2 P. 299–316
In the second half of the 19th century Darboux obtained determinant formulae that provide the general solution for a linear hyperbolic second order PDE with finite Laplace series. These formulae played an important role in his study of the theory of surfaces and, in particular, in the theory of conjugate nets. During the last three ...
Added: September 11, 2026
Смирнов С. В., Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical 2023 Vol. 56 No. 26 Article 265204
There are different methods of discretizing integrable systems. We consider semi-discrete analog of two-dimensional Toda lattices associated to the Cartan matrices of simple Lie algebras that was proposed by Habibullin in 2011. This discretization is based on the notion of Darboux integrability. Generalized Toda lattices are known to be Darboux integrable in the continuous case ...
Added: September 11, 2026
Enatskaya N., Труды Карельского научного центра РАН. Серия 10: Математическое моделирование и информационные технологии 2026 № 6 С. 132–138
In schemes S for placing r particles in n distinguishable cells, their placement in selected m cells – schemes S∗ is studied, for which the analysis is carried out by a new enumerative method (EM) in extended areas of enumerative combinatorics: finding the number of outcomes and, based on the construction of a model of ...
Added: September 11, 2026
Enatskaya N., Труды Карельского научного центра РАН. Серия 10: Математическое моделирование и информационные технологии 2026 № 6 С. 139–147
The class of particle cell arrangements under consideration is characterized by the introduction of an upper limit on the filling levels of the cells, which must be achieved in at least one cell of each outcome of each arrangement. The circuits are distinguished by the paired qualities of their constituent elements (cells and particles) according ...
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Карпова Д. А., Sizova I., Gordin V. E., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 2 С. 10–31
This article examines the musealisation of industrial heritage and its role in regional and corporate branding. The relevance of this study stems from deindustrialisation processes, the growth of industrial tourism, and the need to preserve historical memory, which is particularly important in the context of Russian realities—the lack of a legal definition of the concept ...
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Veselova L. S., Морозова В. С., Дарчиева А. А., Управленец 2026 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 66–78
На фоне развивающихся торгово-экономических отношений между Россией и Китаем российские десерт- ные бренды получают новые возможности для выхода на китайский рынок. Однако их присутствие ограничено преи- мущественно приграничными регионами, а продвижение сдерживается недостаточной адаптацией к социокультурным особенностям китайских потребителей. Статья посвящена разработке практических рекомендаций по формированию стратегии адаптации российских десертных брендов к специфике китайского рынка. ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Podinovskiy V. V., Нелюбин А. П., Автоматика и телемеханика 2026 № 8 С. 110–123
Для многокритериальных задач принятия решений по аналогии с качественной вероятностью введены понятия полной и частичной качественной важности как бинарных отношений, обладающих постулируемыми
свойствами. Предложено новое определение отношения нестрогого предпочтения на множестве вариантов решений, порождаемое качественной
важностью. Исследованы его свойства. Указаны аналитические правила,
позволяющие попарно сравнивать варианты по предпочтительности. Проведено сравнение новых отношений предпочтения с разработанными ранее для задач, ...
Added: September 9, 2026
Ibragimov R., Distaso W., Skrobotov A. et al., Plos One 2022 Vol. 17 No. 12 P. e0275516–0
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Dependence Modeling 2023 Vol. 11 No. 1 Article 20220152
This review discusses methods of testing for explosive bubbles in time series. A large number of recently developed testing methods under various assumptions about innovation of errors are covered. The review also considers the methods for dating explosive (bubble) regimes. Special attention is devoted to time-varying volatility in the errors. Moreover, the modelling of possible ...
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Skrobotov A., Communications in Statistics-Theory and Method 2022 Vol. 52 No. 17 P. 5952–5965
Added: November 16, 2024
Kurozumi E., Skrobotov A., Tsarev A., Journal of Financial Econometrics 2023 Vol. 21 No. 4 P. 1282–1307
This paper is devoted to testing for bubbles under time-varying non-stationary volatility. Because the limiting distribution of the seminal Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) test depends on the variance function and usually requires a bootstrap implementation under heteroskedasticity, we construct the test based on a deformation of the time domain. The proposed test is asymptotically pivotal under ...
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Skrobotov A., Economics Letters 2022 Vol. 212 P. 110276–0
Added: November 16, 2024
Shabanov N., Sergey A. Bartalev, Kobayashi H. et al., IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 2023 Vol. 61 Article 4405717
Forest is a multi-layered canopy, where overstory and understory implement different biogeochemical cycles, phenology and functional role. Remote sensing products typically estimate forest total Leaf Area Index (LAI), while few quantify its components. The theoretical understanding of foliage distribution between layers is still quite limited. In this study we’ve developed a semi-empirical model for decomposition ...
Added: July 5, 2023
Dyatchkova N., Grishunin S., Karminsky A. M., , in: 6th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative ManagementIssue 139: 6th International Conference on Information Technology and Quantitative Management.: United States of America: Editions Elsevier, 2018. P. 17–24.
The main goal of this paper is to study interconnections between credit ratings and financial indicators of industrial companies from BRICS countries. We use method of patterns, one of the modern methods of nonlinear modeling, to identify groups of heterogeneous objects with different influence on ratings. Additionally, in this research, we evaluate Tobit regression model ...
Added: November 15, 2019
Mustafin A., / Series HUM "Humanities". 2019.
Kondratiev long cycle is generally treated as a phenomenon of a modern world economy. However, the existence of major cycles before the Industrial Revolution does not contradict the theoretical views of Kondratiev, the founder of the long-waves theory. We have discovered Kondratiev’s documents, which show him going farther back in history. The key question we ...
Added: August 12, 2019
Arkhipov R., Katyshev P., Прикладная эконометрика 2016 Т. 44 С. 38–49
We consider the problem of cointegration of the macro indices of Russian economy (GDP, money aggregate M2, budget expenses, real effective exchange rate) and electric power generation. It is assumed that on time interval (1999–2015) under consideration a structural change (regime shift) is allowed, and as a result the cointegration relationship may be changed. The ...
Added: October 22, 2018
Stankevich I., Труды Института системного анализа Российской академии наук 2018 Т. 68 № 2 С. 55–58
The paper analyses the necessity of seasonal adjustment in dynamic models. It is shown, that seasonal adjustment of the time series can influence its’ properties in terms of unit root and cointegration tests. This influence depends of the seasonal adjustment procedure and the test selected. If there is a cointegration between series, seasonal adjustment of ...
Added: October 22, 2018
Method of calculating Lyapunov exponents for time series using artificial neural networks committees
Dmitrieva L., Smetanin N., Kuperin Y. et al., Days on Diffraction (DD) 2016 P. 127–132
The aim of this work is to develop a method for calculating all Lyapunov exponents from time series with high accuracy. To achieve this goal we propose a new method for determining the local and global Lyapunov exponents for a given time series. A special feature of the proposed method is the use of neural ...
Added: August 23, 2017
Rodionova L., Kopnova E., / Series WP BRP "Basic research program". 2017. No. 166/EC/2017.
This paper investigates the issue of food security as the basis for stable economic development using the example of North Africa. A statistical analysis of economic and financial factors in relation to the determinants of food security was carried out using a panel cointegrating model based on official international statistics of the Food and Agriculture ...
Added: July 3, 2017
Mkhitarian V., Arkhipova M., Балаш В. А. et al., М.: Проспект, 2015.
В настоящем учебнике «Эконометрика» рассматривается как дисциплина, объединяющая совокупность результатов, методов и приемов экономической теории, экономической статистики и математико-статистического инструментария для количественного выражения качественных закономерностей. Курс эконометрики призван научить различным способам выражения связей и закономерностей через эконометрические модели, основанные на данных статистических наблюдений. Эконометрический подход предусматривает анализ соответствия выбранной модели изучаемому объекту, рассмотрению причин, приводящих ...
Added: March 10, 2017
Kopnova E., Rodionova L., Известия Саратовского университета. Новая серия. Серия: Экономика. Управление. Право 2016 Т. 16 № 3 С. 306–315
Introduction. Possibilities of application ARIMA-models to analysis and forecasting of demographic time series were considered in the article. Foreign studies had shown that the ARIMA-models give good results for forecasting indicators such as population, birth rates and death rates, life expectancy, along with the traditional demographic methods (cohort-component approach). Research technique. Box-Jenkins methodology of the ...
Added: November 15, 2016