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On the asymptotic behavior of bubble date estimators
Journal of Time Series Analysis. 2023. Vol. 44. No. 4. P. 359–373.
Kurozumi E., Skrobotov A.
In this study, we extend the three-regime bubble model of Pang et al. (2021, Journal of Econometrics, 221(1):227–311) to allow the forth regime followed by the unit root process after recovery. We provide the asymptotic and finite sample justification of the consistency of the collapse date estimator in the two-regime AR(1) model. The consistency allows us to split the sample before and after the date of collapse and to consider the estimation of the date of exuberation and date of recovery separately. We have also found that the limiting behavior of the recovery date varies depending on the extent of explosiveness and recovering.
Keywords: Time series analysis
Tkachuk A., Кудинова И. В., Экономические науки 2026 № 3 С. 256
The article examines the process of economic decoupling between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China in the context of the ongoing transformation of the global economy. The aim of the study is to assess the actual depth of decoupling based on an analysis of key trade, value-added, and investment indicators. ...
Added: May 26, 2026
Gusev I., Maksaev A., Promyslov V., Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2025 Vol. 299 No. 6
The regular graph of the space of n × m matrices over a field F is defined as the undirected graph whose vertices are matrices of rank min(n, m), and distinct matrices A and B are connected by an edge if and only if rk(A + B) < min(n, m). In this paper, for |F| ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Switzerland: Springer Publishing Company, 2026.
In this volume of “Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems” we are pleased to present the proceedings of the 25th International Multidisciplinary Conference on Reliability and Statistics in Transportation and Communication” (RelStat-2025), which took place in hybrid form in Riga, Latvia on October 16–18, 2025. This event belongs to a con ference series started in ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Шелованова Т. И., Синяков А. А., Russian Journal of Economics 2025 No. 11 P. 47–75
The booming retail trade and the above-target consumer prices inflation in 2023–2024 in Russia, amid tightening monetary policy stance, raise an issue of the strength of the monetary policy interest rate channel. The focus of our paper is the interest rate elasticity (given inflation expectations) of a household’s loan request probability. We argue that a ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Kaisarova V. P., Коклев К. С., СПб.: Издательство СПбГЭУ, 2025.
The article examines the trends in the development of territorial accessibility of public transport for the population of the largest city based on the geoinformation analysis of the spatial features of its infrastructure. The article provides a transport dynamic for the period 2015-2024 based on cluster analysis of data on individual types of transport and ...
Added: May 25, 2026
Tyukin I., Tyukina T., van Helden D. P. et al., Information Sciences 2024 Vol. 678 Article 120856
AI errors pose a significant challenge, hindering real-world applications. This work introduces a novel approach to cope with AI errors using weakly supervised error correctors that guarantee a specific level of error reduction. Our correctors have low computational cost and can be used to decide whether to abstain from making an unsafe classification. We provide ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Zaikin A., Sviridov I., Sosedka A. et al., Technologies 2026 Vol. 14 No. 2 Article 84
High-dimensional tabular data are common in biomedical and clinical research, yet conventional machine learning methods often struggle in such settings due to data scarcity, feature redundancy, and limited generalization. In this study, we systematically evaluate Synolitic Graph Neural Networks (SGNNs), a framework that transforms high-dimensional samples into sample-specific graphs by training ensembles of low-dimensional pairwise ...
Added: May 23, 2026
Kibkalo Vladislav, Chertopolokhov V., Mukhamedov A. et al., IEEE Access 2026 Vol. 14 P. 14369–14392
This study presents on-the-fly identification and multi-step prediction of nonlinear systems with delayed inputs using a dynamic neural network combined with a smooth projection onto ellipsoids. The projection enforces parameter constraints that guarantee stability, while a Lyapunov–Krasovskii analysis yields computable ultimate error bounds. Riccati-type matrix inequalities are derived, providing an efficient vectorization–projection–devectorization implementation suitable for ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Морозов С. В., Calcolo 2026 Vol. 63 No. 2 Article 23
The approximation of tensors in a low-para metric format is a crucial component in many mathematical modelling and data analysis tasks. Among the widely used low-parametric representations, the canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition is known to be very efficient. Nowadays, most algorithms for CP approximation aim to construct the approximation in the Frobenius norm; however, some ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Paklina S., Parshakov P., Teplykh G., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2026 Vol. 70 No. 1 P. 279–301
This paper investigates the relationship between online recruitment and unemployment in Russia within the Beveridge curve (the unemployment–vacancy curve) framework. Using panel data for 81 Russian regions over the period 2006–2022, we examine how the expansion of online job boards affects regional unemployment dynamics. The empirical
analysis is based on fi xed- effects and instrumental- variable ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Rincon C. J., Alekseeva O., Vukovic D. et al., Risk Management 2026 No. 28 Article 38
This study examines the long-term effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) interventions on the yields of sovereign bonds in the Eurozone. Using a sample of 14 European countries from January 2009 to December 2023, our findings indicate that increases of 1 billion euros in the ECB’s balance sheet are associated ...
Added: May 22, 2026
Монгуш В. Р., Novikova A., Креативные индустрии 2026 Т. 2 № 1 С. 23–41
This article analyzes the historical and cultural background, as well as the current situation and development prospects of the creative industries ecosystem in the Republic of Tuva. A comparative analysis of this remote, subsidized region and its neighbors, the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) and Krasnoyarsk Krai, revealed its strengths, vulnerabilities, and strategies of young creative professionals ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Zizin A., Plotnikov S., Деева В. В. et al., Инновации и инвестиции 2025 № 6 С. 36–39
The article is devoted to the study of the innovative infrastructure of Russian universities. The importance of developing innovative infrastructure, the practice of their formation (using the example of the country's leading universities) is studied. A classification of infrastructure objects is given and the effectiveness of their use in the practice of Russian universities is ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Plotnikov S., Деева В. В., Тенденции развития науки и образования 2023 № 102-2 С. 113–120
In the scientific article are considered the main technologies of corporate innovative entrepreneurship. Each technology is examined separately, which allows for understanding the purposefulness of using each tool in practice at your company. ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Plotnikov S., Деева В. В., Деева А. В., Тенденции развития науки и образования 2023 № 102-2 С. 64–67
Short-term cyclicity in modern economic systems is caused by a number of factors, including insufficient information. Information about the state of the market, supply and demand is received with a delay due to the processes of its collection, processing and dissemination. The time lag in obtaining information affects the business activity of enterprises, since they ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Селянин Ф. И., Journal of Dynamical and Control Systems 2026 Vol. 32 No. 2 P. 1–16
A B-facet is a lattice -dimensional polytope in the positive octant with a positive normal covector, such that every -dimensional simplex with vertices in it is a B-simplex (i.e., a pyramid of height one with base on a coordinate hyperplane). B-facets were introduced in [2] in the context of the monodromy conjecture. In this paper, we complete the ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Bogdanov T. et al., М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ изучает аспекты цифровой трансформации машиностроения, в том числе оценивает необходимый для этого ресурсный, в частности кадровый, потенциал организаций отрасли.
Эмпирической базой для анализа послужили результаты обследования более 1,7 тыс. организаций машиностроения, проведенного в 2025 г. в рамках Мониторинга цифровой трансформации бизнеса. К машиностроению отнесены производители: компьютеров, электронных и оптических изделий (код по ОКВЭД2 — 26); электрооборудования (27); ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Bogdanov T. et al., М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ изучает аспекты цифровой трансформации машиностроения, в том числе оценивает текущий уровень использования цифровых технологий и перспективный спрос на них.
Эмпирической базой для анализа послужили результаты обследования более 1,7 тыс. организаций машиностроения, проведенного в 2025 г. в рамках Мониторинга цифровой трансформации бизнеса. К машиностроению отнесены производители: компьютеров, электронных и оптических изделий (код по ОКВЭД2 — 26); электрооборудования (27); машин и оборудования, не включенных в другие ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Bogdanov T. et al., М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ изучает аспекты цифровой трансформации химической промышленности, в том числе оценивает необходимый для этого ресурсный, в частности кадровый, потенциал организаций отрасли.
Эмпирической базой для анализа послужили результаты обследования более тысячи организаций химической промышленности, проведенного в 2025 г. в рамках Мониторинга цифровой трансформации бизнеса. К химпрому отнесены в соответствии с ОКВЭД2 производители: химических веществ и химических продуктов (код по ОКВЭД2 — 20); лекарственных средств ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Abashkin V., Abdrakhmanova G., Bogdanov T. et al., М.: НИУ ВШЭ, 2026.
Институт статистических исследований и экономики знаний НИУ ВШЭ изучает аспекты цифровой трансформации химической промышленности, в том числе оценивает текущий уровень использования цифровых технологий и перспективный спрос на них.
Эмпирической базой для анализа послужили результаты обследования более тысячи организаций химической промышленности, проведенного в 2025 г. в рамках Мониторинга цифровой трансформации бизнеса. К химпрому отнесены в соответствии с ОКВЭД2 производители: химических веществ и химических продуктов (код по ОКВЭД2 — 20); лекарственных средств и материалов, ...
Added: May 21, 2026
Ibragimov R., Distaso W., Skrobotov A. et al., Plos One 2022 Vol. 17 No. 12 P. e0275516–0
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Dependence Modeling 2023 Vol. 11 No. 1 Article 20220152
This review discusses methods of testing for explosive bubbles in time series. A large number of recently developed testing methods under various assumptions about innovation of errors are covered. The review also considers the methods for dating explosive (bubble) regimes. Special attention is devoted to time-varying volatility in the errors. Moreover, the modelling of possible ...
Added: November 16, 2024
Skrobotov A., Skrobotov A., Communications in Statistics-Theory and Method 2022 Vol. 52 No. 17 P. 5952–5965
Added: November 16, 2024
Kurozumi E., Skrobotov A., Tsarev A., Journal of Financial Econometrics 2023 Vol. 21 No. 4 P. 1282–1307
This paper is devoted to testing for bubbles under time-varying non-stationary volatility. Because the limiting distribution of the seminal Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) test depends on the variance function and usually requires a bootstrap implementation under heteroskedasticity, we construct the test based on a deformation of the time domain. The proposed test is asymptotically pivotal under ...
Added: November 16, 2024