Влияние монетарной политики на ставки по ипотечным кредитам в регионах России

Экономическая политика. 2024. Т. 19. № 6. С. 26–53.

Demidova O., Myasnikov A., Seregina S., Shchankina A.

Based on panel data analysis of weighted average interest rates in Russian regions, the paper documents differences in reactions of regional mortgage markets to changes in money market rates (in our case, MIACR), the latter being primarily due to changes in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. The efficiency of monetary transmission is significantly influenced by the level of competition in regional mortgage markets — we assume that this may be explained by the different roles of money market instruments as a source of liabilities for different banks — and therefore, by different scales of transmission of money market rates into mortgage rates. In addition, mortgage interest rates are influenced by the competition levels in regional mortgage market, as well as by purchasing power of borrowers in housing markets and by the quality of life in Russian regions — we explain this via standard microeconomic logic of market structures and by the role of the PTI indicator (reflecting the share of income that the borrower spends on loan repayment) in determining the levels of risk and, accordingly, risk premium; the intensity of regional migration flows is also found to be negatively related to the levels of mortgage interest rates.

Keywords: денежно-кредитная политика, monetary policy, регионы России, монетарная трансмиссия, monetary transmission, Russian regions, mortgage market, mortgage rates, ипотечный рынок, ипотечные ставки

Publication based on the results of: Spatial-econometric modeling of modern socio-economic processes in Russia: regional aspect (2024)