Бюджетные правила и контрциклическая бюджетная политика в России

Проблемы прогнозирования. 2024. № 3. С. 30–42.

Аблаев Э. Ю., Магжанов Т. Р.

The purpose of this work is to determine how much the presence of fiscal rules in Russia contributed to the implementation of the countercyclical fiscal policy. The study uses different specifications of ARDL models in order to obtain robust results based on quarterly data about primary federal budget expenditures and other indicators of the Russian economy over 2000–2021. During periods of validity of fiscal rules, primary federal budget expenditures were, on average, acyclical with respect to the phase of the business cycle. The termination of the fiscal rules determined the implementation of the countercyclical fiscal policy. Based on these results, it is concluded that fiscal rules aimed mainly at saving oil and gas revenues are unable to ensure the implementation of countercyclical fiscal policy in Russia.

Keywords: нефтегазовые доходы, бюджетные правила, разрыв выпуска, контрциклическая бюджетная политика, федеральный бюджет России

Publication based on the results of: Analysis and forecasting of the Russian socio-economic development in the medium- and long term in conditions of the completion of the escalation of the foreign economic sanctions regime and the renewal of the system of strategic management of the economy, its most important spheres and industries (2024)