APC-моделирование связи коэффициентов рождаемости по очередности рождения с экономическими шоками в России

Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2024. № 3(64). С. 84–102.

Vakulenko E., Рыжкина А. Е.

The article is devoted to the study of the relationship between economic shocks and the fertility rate of first, second and third children in Russia using Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. There were considered annual data for 39 regions of the Russian Federation for the period from 2004 to 2021, the sources were Rosstat and the Russian Database of Fertility and Mortality CDR NES. In this work, for the first time, the most advanced APC modeling method is used on Russian data - an approach based on mechanisms of interaction between variables (Mechanism-based approach), the implementation of which is carried out using intermediate variables (mediators) to identify the effects of age, period and cohort in dynamics of fertility and identifying causal relationships. As such mediators for the cohort effect, the ratio of marriages and divorces was used, for the last period effect (a year earlier) - the unemployment rate (total, male and female), as well as an intermediate mediator of the year before last period effect - investment in fixed capital. In addition, we assessed the impact on fertility of proxy variables of the last period effect: federal and regional maternity capital programs, as well as oil and gas revenues of the federal budget. To check the stability of the results Intrinsic Estimator method was used, which allows us to decompose the fertility indicator into the effects of age, period and cohort. The results of the study showed that there is a direct relationship between the fertility rate of children of the considered orders and economic shocks that correspond to the last and year before last period effects.

Keywords: рождаемость, нефтегазовые доходы, fertility, материнский капитал, уровень безработицы, unemployment rate, maternity capital, oil and gas revenues, birth order of children, negative economic shocks, APC modeling, порядок рождений детей, отрицательные экономические шоки, APC-моделирование