Валидность индексов «мягкой силы»: от вызовов к решениям

Политическая наука. 2024. № 2. С. 262–281.

Гриневич П. А., Bocharova A., Stukal D.

The potential of a state in developing its “soft power” is an important component in assessing its state capacity. A nation’s “soft power” not only refers to its external attractiveness and informal influence on decisions made by other international actors, but also serves as an important indicator of a country's potential to affect the formation of a more favorable external environment. The validity of “soft power” indices has not so far been thoroughly studied. This gap poses a significant limitation to practical applications of these indices in comparative empirical research. We fill this gap by conducting the validity analysis and showing that existing “soft power” indices present a number of challenges, including an unknown or unjustified choice of data aggregation method, inconsistency in the conceptualization of proxy variables, and the inclusion of survey results of public opinion and expert surveys in the analysis. This study introduces and tests some ways to overcome the identified problems. These include measuring only the resources of “soft power”, relying on a rigorous conceptual framework, refraining from using subjective data, and employing the principal component method for a more methodologically sound selection of the final weights. This work provides an example of how a more valid index could be developed, though the choice of both proxy variables and possible measurements of “soft power” still requires further empirical research.

Keywords: principal component analysis, государственная состоятельность, метод главных компонент, "soft power", "мягкая сила", state solvency