Oil Exporting Countries: Analysis of Economic Growth Opportunities Through Export Diversification in a Low-Carbon World

Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2023. Vol. 34. No. 5. P. 573–582.

Жуков С. В., Копытин И. А., Масленников А. О., Sinitsyn M.

In the article, the problems of the development of merchandise exports of three post-Soviet oil exporters—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia and the three largest oil exporters of the Persian Gulf—Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are studied based on the analysis of disaggregated export–import flows using the approaches of complexity economics and the structuralist school, taking into account the carbon trace of export goods. It is concluded that in a low-carbon world, the opportunities to increase exports for post-Soviet oil exporters by diversifying into goods that are most technologically close to the country’s current production capabilities are relatively limited. Gulf oil exporters will benefit from such a strategy in terms of the size of their potential export markets. To ensure the sustainability of economic growth, Russia and Kazakhstan need to diversify into new export goods, which requires the creation of modern production facilities.

Keywords: economic complexity, export diversification, oil exporting countries, revealed comparative advantages