History and Modern Landscape of Futures Studies

Foresight and STI Governance. 2023. Vol. 17. No. 4. P. 80–91.

Marina Boykova, Knyazeva H., Salazkin M.

The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and quality of strategies. Through a retrospective analysis of prognostic science and Foresight studies, the paper presents the prerequisites for enriching the relevant methodology with the complexity science concepts. Relevant Foresight competences are identified. Case studies are presented, which can serve as practical guidelines to master the creative potential of complexity during particularly unstable periods. Special attention is paid to the emerging megatrend of the rising deglobalisation, which can radically affect the implementation of previously developed strategies. The key conclusion from the presented analysis is that skilful handling of complexity opens up major opportunities for creative growth

Keywords: форсайт, история науки, uncertainty, неопределенность, сценарное планирование, компетенции, устойчивое развитие, history of science, complexity, сложность, competencies, weak signals, корпоративные стратегии, Futures Studies, исследования будущего, "слабые сигналы", Foresight, corporate strategies, мегатренды, sustainable development, scenario planning, megatrends, complex systems science, наука о сложных системах