Economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, market sentiment, and regional stocks: asymmetric analyses of the EU sectors

Eurasian Economic Review. 2023. Vol. 13. P. 321–372.

Bossman A., Gubareva M., Teplova T.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), and market sentiment (VIX) on European Union (EU) stocks by sectors of economic activity. The design and methodological approach of our research are rooted in parametric and nonparametric quantile-based techniques. We employ monthly data covering eleven sectors of economic activity in addition to GPR, Global EPU, European Union EPU, United States EPU, and VIX. Our dataset covers the period between February 2013 and September 2022. Our findings show a generally low predictive power of the considered EPU measures on the stock returns of the EU sectors. Notwithstanding, the analysis reveals that EPU from the EU has the highest predictive ability on the EU sectoral stock returns while EPU from the US has no significant predictive ability on the stock returns from the EU. Our findings also highlight the asymmetric effects of various EPUs on EU stocks. Moreover, certain sectoral exposure to EU stocks, found to serve just as diversifiers in normal market conditions, could become a hedge and safe-haven against GPR in extreme economic conditions. Our findings also highlight the role of the VIX as a good gauge to hedge against the downside risks of the EU stocks. The originality of our work is two-fold. First, we extend the study of how global factors influence the EU stock market to the most recent period including the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Second, we perform this study on a sectoral basis. Therefore, the value of our findings is that they provide notable implications for market regulation and portfolio management.

Keywords: экономическая политика, Европейский Союз, геополитика, European Union, economic policy, geopolitics, рынок акций, stock market, сентимент инвесторов, investor sentiment, Quantile analysis, Risk and uncertainty, риск и неопределенность, квантильный анализ