Субъективное благополучие и революционная дестабилизация. Опыт количественного анализа

Социология власти. 2023. Т. 35. № 3. С. 57–94.

Мусиева Д. М., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A.

The subjective well-being of the population or the level of happiness is a popular topic for scientific research and socio-political discussions both within individual countries and at the global level. In this regard, the direction of research is also gaining interest, in which the level of happiness is considered as a predictor of socio-political stability at the moment. The analysis of the literature revealed that despite the abundance of works on the topic of subjective well-being, its relationship with income, as well as with the political activity of the population, there are quite a few works devoted to the analysis of the impact of this indicator on sociopolitical instability. This article attempts to carry out a cross-country analysis of the impact of deviations in subjective well-being below the value that would be expected at the given level of economic development. The proposed quantitative analysis has made it possible to reveal the presence of a statistically significant influence of this deviation on the revolutionary activity of both armed and unarmed nature. It is noteworthy that the identified patterns do not apply to all groups of countries, but only to middle-income economies, and each subgroup also has its own patterns. Thus, the mean values of subjective life satisfaction, which are lower than what could be expected with the given level of economic development, are significant predictors of the risks of armed revolutionary insurgencies in the lower middle-income countries. At the same time, in the upper middleincome countries, they are already predictors of unarmed revolutionary uprisings.

Keywords: субъективное благополучие, относительная депривация, subjective well-being, relative deprivation, ВВП на душу населения, unarmed revolutionary actions, per capita GDP, armed revolutions, вооруженные революции, невооруженные революционные выступления

Publication based on the results of: Mechanisms and factors of stability of socio-political systems of the "Afrasian" macro zone of instability (2023)