Modeling Social Self-organization and Historical Dynamics: Global Phase Transitions

P. 387–417.

Malkov S., Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Jameelah Musieva, Korotayev A.

This chapter presents the results of using the set of basic models outlined in Chapter “Modeling Social Self-Organization and Historical Dynamics. A General Approach” to model transitional eras, when, due to technological revolutions, there is a sharp acceleration in the pace of economic (and, after that, demographic) development, a “society of stability/stagnation” is transformed into a “growth society,” the dominance of X-type social structures is replaced by the dominance of Y-type structures. Examples of such transitional eras are the Axial Age (in the first millennium BCE) and the industrial era (the last 200 years). Malkov et al. consider characteristic features of transitional epochs, analyze the logic of the evolution of economic and social processes, and model these mathematically. It is shown that in the initial phases of such eras, there is a hyperbolic growth of the main demographic and economic characteristics, and at the final stage, there is a sharp slowdown, accompanied by strong social instability and a reverse transition from the dominance of Y-type social structures to the dominance of X-type structures.

Keywords: economic development, demographic development, technological revolutions, the industrial era

In book

Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome

Springer, 2023.