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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Теоретические основания внешней политики стран Латинской Америки

Международные процессы. 2023. Т. 21. № 1. С. 162–188.
Kosevich E.

Autonomy has always been the focus of theoretical research in the field of international relations and foreign policy of Latin American countries. At the same time, deepening and strengthening cooperation with neighbors in the region has traditionally been an unshakable priority for all Latin American states, around which their entire foreign policy was built. The article considers the crucial stages of development that the concept of autonomy has gone through in the framework of international relations theories developed by Latin American scholars. Simultaneously, the changing role and essential characteristics of integration are studied as a process that modifies its direction under the pressure of various external and internal forces. The author analyzes the key theoretical approaches of Latin American countries to the study of international relations and foreign policy in the period from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. The research also considers the determining factors influencing the evolution of the intra-regional and extra-regional directions as regards the foreign policy of the states in the region. Identifying the system of elements that form the core of modern Latin American foreign policy and combining global and national components allow us to determine the substantial changes in the paradigmatic nature of international relations, which is the key to understanding the modern activities of Latin American countries in the international arena, substantiating the relevance and novelty of this study. The author examines five main stages in the evolution of the concept of autonomy, which have become a reflection of real historical events. Each of them is interconnected with the concept of integration in its own way: the first stage was characterized by the prevalence of a realistic approach; the second stage was marked by the strategy of "development coming from within"; during the third stage, the concept of relative autonomy dominated; the fourth stage was characterized by the dominance of two approaches: separatist and relative; the fifth stage takes place under the slogan of the concept of «liquid autonomy».Autonomy has always been the focus of theoretical research in the field of international relations and foreign policy of Latin American countries. At the same time, deepening and strengthening cooperation with neighbors in the region has traditionally been an unshakable priority for all Latin American states, around which their entire foreign policy was built. The article considers the crucial stages of development that the concept of autonomy has gone through in the framework of international relations theories developed by Latin American scholars. Simultaneously, the changing role and essential characteristics of integration are studied as a process that modifies its direction under the pressure of various external and internal forces. The author analyzes the key theoretical approaches of Latin American countries to the study of international relations and foreign policy in the period from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. The research also considers the determining factors influencing the evolution of the intra-regional and extra-regional directions as regards the foreign policy of the states in the region. Identifying the system of elements that form the core of modern Latin American foreign policy and combining global and national components allow us to determine the substantial changes in the paradigmatic nature of international relations, which is the key to understanding the modern activities of Latin American countries in the international arena, substantiating the relevance and novelty of this study. The author examines five main stages in the evolution of the concept of autonomy, which have become a reflection of real historical events. Each of them is interconnected with the concept of integration in its own way: the first stage was characterized by the prevalence of a realistic approach; the second stage was marked by the strategy of "development coming from within"; during the third stage, the concept of relative autonomy dominated; the fourth stage was characterized by the dominance of two approaches: separatist and relative; the fifth stage takes place under the slogan of the concept of «liquid autonomy».

Research target: Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration History and Archeology Other Humanities
Language: Russian
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Keywords: международные отношенияинтеграцияЛатинская Америкаintegrationautonomyавтономиятеория международных отношенийtheory of international relationsWorld-System Мир-Система Latin America international relationships
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