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Introduction: Hoping for the Future
P. 1–14.
In book
Springer, 2023.
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Bilqis L. C., Shishkina A., Journal of Globalization Studies 2025 Vol. 16 No. 2 P. 169–179
This article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of digital nomadism in the period after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has accelerated the trend on transformation of many aspects of life, including labor market, due to digitalization. The authors discuss the significance of this phenomenon in the context of the intensified ...
Added: February 25, 2026
Gaman-Golutvina O. V., Российский Совет по международным делам 2025 № 17.06.2025
What is happening in world politics receives various interpretations in Russian and foreign academic discourse. Researchers are wondering what the outcome of this movement will be. Is the accumulation of new quality in the international system transformed into its radical renewal, or is it able to absorb changing realities, adapting to them and adapting the ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Chistikov M., В кн.: АРКТИКА И СЕВЕР В КОНТЕКСТЕ РАЗВИТИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ.: Архангельск: Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова (Архангельск), 2020. С. 138–144.
The Norwegian economy is dependent on the oil and gas sector. Specialization in mining is typical for peripheral countries. At the same time, socio-political, economic and cultural phenomena characteristic of peripheral countries are not reproduced in Norway. This is due to the fact that in Norway the distribution of a significant part of oil and ...
Added: December 15, 2023
Sadovnichy V., Akaev A., Ilyin I. et al., , in: Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome.: Springer, 2023. P. 35–50.
This chapter analyzes the current historical situation and the prospects for its further development. It is evident that drastic changes are currently taking place in the world, reflecting a phase transition in historical development, namely, the transition from the late industrial phase to the cybernetic phase, features of which are largely determined by the ongoing ...
Added: September 28, 2023
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., World Futures 2022 P. 1–22
At present the World System is undergoing considerable transformations. We expect that in connection with the World System reconfiguration the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation may increase noticeably. We analyze the future of revolutions in a number of aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their ...
Added: July 30, 2022
Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Social Evolution & History 2021 Vol. 20 No. 2 P. 50–78
This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the ‘urban revolution’) – the interaction between civilizations and their tribal peripheries. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe the possible influence of the interaction between the World ...
Added: January 12, 2022
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 436–457.
Added: January 12, 2021
Grinin L. E., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 5–14.
По мнению автора, процесс реконфигурации Мир-Системы в настоящий момент в значительной степени затронул ее центр (США и Европу), где в настоящем периоде и происходят, по- видимому, главные события процесса реконфигурации. И это неиз- бежно, по-разному, но существенно и заметно, будет отражать- ся на судьбах обществ афразийской макрозоны нестабильности. В условиях реконфигурации Мир-Системы «разломы» в ней начи- наются в наиболее неустойчивых и слабых местах, причем, как правило, эти районы являются местом противостояния различ-ных интересов и ...
Added: January 11, 2021
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Zeitschrift für Weltgeschichte 2018 Vol. 19 No. 1 P. 13–56
The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with ...
Added: January 11, 2019
Korotayev A., Grinin L. E., , in: Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy. World System and World Values Perspectives.: Dordrecht: Springer, 2019. P. 347–364.
The events of the Arab Spring can be analyzed in two dimensions: first, with respect to internal and global causes and second, in terms of their influence on the future scenarios of the World System development. Such a view we use in this concluding chapter. We explain the amazing synchronization of social upheavals in a ...
Added: October 13, 2018
Korotayev A., Meshcherina K., Shishkina A., Democracy and Security 2018 Vol. 14 No. 4 P. 331–357
After the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2011, explosive global growth was observed for the majority of indicators of sociopolitical destabilization in all parts of the World System. In order to identify the structure of this destabilization wave, we apply a series of statistical techniques such as trend analysis and t-tests to study the ...
Added: August 27, 2018
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., , in: Comparing Globalizations Historical and World-Systems Approaches.: Springer Publishing Company, 2018. Ch. 2 P. 37–70.
The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present chapter we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with ...
Added: November 28, 2017
Korotayev A., Shishkina A., Лухманова З. Т., Полис. Политические исследования 2017 № 6 С. 150–168
В статье анализируется глобальная динамика основных показателей социально-политической дестабилизации в 2011-2015 гг. Показано, что после начала Арабской весны взрывообразный глобальный рост фиксировался для подавляющего большинства показателей социально-политической дестабилизации – для антиправительственных демонстраций, массовых беспорядков, политических забастовок, террористических актов / “партизанских действий” и политических репрессий. Наблюдался он и для глобального интегрального индекса социально-политической дестабилизации. Статистически значимого роста не наблюдалось ...
Added: November 12, 2017
Grinin L. E., История и современность 2016 № 1 С. 20–63
The article studies the evolution of the world order starting to form from the ancient times as well as the main factors, principles, and ideas underlying the establishment and change of this order. The author analyzes the way the world order based on the American hegemony was formed, developed and how it has started to ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Гринин А., В кн.: XXIII Кондратьевские чтения: тупики глобальной экономики, поиск новой научной парадигмы. Сборник статей участников конференции.: М.: Межрегиональная общественная организация содействия изучению, пропаганде научного наследия Н.Д. Кондратьева, 2015. С. 89–105.
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Grinin, Anton L., Journal of Globalization Studies 2015 Vol. 6 No. 2 P. 119–142
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume ...
Added: June 14, 2016
Grinin L. E., Философия и общество 2015 № 3-4 С. 7–33
The global order as a system of certain ideas and regularities predominant in the world politics had started to emerge in Europe in the sixteenth century and was finally established in the nineteenth century. However, an established world order usually endures for three-four decades and then it changes under the influence of the changing circumstances ...
Added: June 10, 2016
Grinin L. E., Grinin A., , in: Kondratieff waves. Juglar – Kuznets – Kondratieff.: Volgograd: ., 2014. P. 354–377.
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. ...
Added: October 13, 2015
Grinin L. E., Гринин А. Л., Историческая психология и социология истории 2015 Т. 8 № 1 С. 172–197
In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and produc-tion revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make forecasts about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution that, from our point of view, started in the 1950s. ...
Added: October 9, 2015
Grinin L. E., Век глобализации 2011 № 1 С. 80–94
The paper investigates the historical aspect of globalization and analyzes the main integration processes that have been taking place during the last several thousand years. In this respect the history of Afroeurasian world-system formation, development and its transformation into contemporary planetary World-System gives large possibilities. That is why this research has been made in the ...
Added: October 13, 2014
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., , in: Kondratieff Waves. Dimensions and Prospects at the Dawn of the 21st Century. Yearbook.: Volgograd: Uchitel, 2012. P. 23–64.
The analysis of long economic cycles allows us to understand long-term world-system dynamics, to develop forecasts, to explain crises of the past, as well as the current global economic crisis. The article offers an historical sketch of research on K-waves; it analyzes the nature of Kondratieff waves that are considered as a special form of ...
Added: October 13, 2014
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., World Futures: The Journal of Global Education 2012 No. 68 P. 471–505
In a previous article, “The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions: Possible Scenarios of the Near Future” (Grinin and Korotayev 2011), it was preliminarily demonstrated that the turbulent events of late 2010 and 2011 in the Arab World may well be regarded as a start of the global reconfiguration. The subsequent events have confirmed this supposition. ...
Added: October 13, 2014