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О сложности процесса мирного перехода к многополярности и возможной стратегии России
What is happening in world politics receives various interpretations in Russian and foreign academic discourse. Researchers are wondering what the outcome of this movement will be. Is the accumulation of new quality in the international system transformed into its radical renewal, or is it able to absorb changing realities, adapting to them and adapting the existing algorithms of its functioning? This is no accident - the subject of discussion is extremely complex, not only because of the probabilistic nature of social knowledge, but primarily because of the high rate and nonlinear nature of the transformation of the object of study itself. The world system and the order of its functioning did not just begin to move — it seems that the tectonic plates on which this system and this world order rested began to move. The range of possible versions of crises varies in a wide range — from developmental crises to terminal ones, marking the disappearance of the object itself. Therefore, forecasting the content, dynamics, and structure of the global system of power centers involves solving a number of heuristic tasks belonging to various subject fields, from determining the methodological foundations of analysis and research strategies to understanding the economic indicators of complex dynamics.