?
Продолжающаяся реконфигурация мир-системы и возможные процессы дестабилизации в афразийской макрозоне нестабильности
С. 5–14.
In book
Ч. 1. Т. 11. , Издательство "Учитель", 2020.
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Bilqis L. C., Shishkina A., Journal of Globalization Studies 2025 Vol. 16 No. 2 P. 169–179
This article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of digital nomadism in the period after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has accelerated the trend on transformation of many aspects of life, including labor market, due to digitalization. The authors discuss the significance of this phenomenon in the context of the intensified ...
Added: February 25, 2026
Gaman-Golutvina O. V., Российский Совет по международным делам 2025 № 17.06.2025
What is happening in world politics receives various interpretations in Russian and foreign academic discourse. Researchers are wondering what the outcome of this movement will be. Is the accumulation of new quality in the international system transformed into its radical renewal, or is it able to absorb changing realities, adapting to them and adapting the ...
Added: December 11, 2025
Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Revolutions have always played a significant role in the life of societies, but this role has become especially important since the XVI century. In other words, since the early Modern period, the role of revolutions as a driving force of progress has increased dramatically. However, in the following centuries, their role in the transformation of ...
Added: October 8, 2024
Chistikov M., В кн.: АРКТИКА И СЕВЕР В КОНТЕКСТЕ РАЗВИТИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ПРОЦЕССОВ.: Архангельск: Северный (Арктический) федеральный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова (Архангельск), 2020. С. 138–144.
The Norwegian economy is dependent on the oil and gas sector. Specialization in mining is typical for peripheral countries. At the same time, socio-political, economic and cultural phenomena characteristic of peripheral countries are not reproduced in Norway. This is due to the fact that in Norway the distribution of a significant part of oil and ...
Added: December 15, 2023
Sadovnichy V., Akaev A., Ilyin I. et al., , in: Reconsidering the Limits to Growth. A Report to the Russian Association of the Club of Rome.: Springer, 2023. P. 1–14.
Added: September 28, 2023
Ustyuzhanin V., В кн.: Перспективы процессов дестабилизации в странах Африки.: М.: Издательство "Учитель", 2022. С. 118–128.
В работе представлены прогнозы возникновения масштабных политических и демографических коллапсов, а также сценарии экономического роста некоторых стран Африки южнее Сахары, где вероятность вооруженных гражданских конфликтов и обнищания населения наиболее высока в ближайшие десятилетия. Используется несколько математических моделей: (1) для прогнозирования рисков вооруженного конфликта, где основными объясняющими факторами являются численность населения, медианный возраст и уровень охвата ...
Added: December 20, 2022
Ilya Medvedev, Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. et al., Comparative Sociology 2022 Vol. 21 No. 5 P. 604–645
Based on the experience of previous studies, the authors use machine learning methods at two levels for evaluating predictors of instability. First, they analyze the factors that lead to instability in general; second, they focus on the factors that influence the intensity of instability. Their analysis relies on data on mass protest destabilization. The system for ...
Added: November 1, 2022
Leonid Grinin, Korotayev A., World Futures 2022 P. 1–22
At present the World System is undergoing considerable transformations. We expect that in connection with the World System reconfiguration the number of revolutions as well as their role as a means of the world-system transformation may increase noticeably. We analyze the future of revolutions in a number of aspects, namely: (1) the evaluation of their ...
Added: July 30, 2022
Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Sawyer P., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2022.
Previous studies have found a positive relationship between the youth and the educated with protest intensity, but the form that these protests take needs further research. We argue that students are a unique group, acting neither as an educated nor a young population, and three possible mechanisms push students towards non-violent rather than violent forms ...
Added: May 13, 2022
Nikita Khokhlov, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2022 Vol. 56 No. 4 P. 385–418
The Internet provides a medium for the rapid mobilization of dissatisfied citizens and potentially contributes to various forms of political instability, including terrorism. However, the spread of the Internet may not lead to a higher intensity of terrorist attacks because direct perpetrators rely on close personal offline ties, and the national security agencies derive symmetrical ...
Added: April 23, 2022
Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E., Медведев И. А. et al., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2022 Т. 104 № 1 С. 50–71
Despite the existence of numerous hypotheses about what factors influence protesters’ choice of armed vs. unarmed struggle tactics, today there is a dearth of global, quantitative cross-national studies aimed at identifying the reasons why revolutions take a violent vs. a non-violent form. The article attempts to fill one of the gaps existing here by conducting ...
Added: March 31, 2022
Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Social Evolution & History 2021 Vol. 20 No. 2 P. 50–78
This article offers a mathematical model describing the influence of one of the major factors of the World System's macrodynamics throughout most of its history (since the ‘urban revolution’) – the interaction between civilizations and their tribal peripheries. The proposed mathematical model is intended to describe the possible influence of the interaction between the World ...
Added: January 12, 2022
Медведев И. А., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2021.
Is there a relationship between education and the type of revolutionary action – violent or nonviolent? Past studies found a positive relationship between the education and nonviolence, but the influence that education produces on the form that revolution takes has not yet been explored. This paper examines it at a cross-national level with an analysis ...
Added: December 1, 2021
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 436–457.
Added: January 12, 2021
Grinin L. E., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисковЧ. 1. Т. 11.: Издательство "Учитель", 2020. С. 179–197.
В этой статье мы исследуем влияние демографического фактора (в его разных аспектах) на вероятность и степень будущих процессов нестабильности в Афразийской макрозоне, но прежде всего в ее африканской части. Демографы прогнозируют мощный демографический рост в Африке, особенно в странах Южнее Сахары, в том числе и в зоне Сахеля. Во многих странах прогнозы показывают рост населения ...
Added: January 11, 2021
Dordrecht: Springer, 2020.
This book discusses the role of political narratives in shaping perceptions of instability and conceptions of order in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The authors illustrate how, in times of socio-political turmoil and outbursts of discontent such as the Arab Spring, political entrepreneurs explain and justify their political agendas by complementing hard power ...
Added: January 14, 2020
Издательство "Учитель", 2019.
Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой десятый том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы фундаментальных исследований НИУ ВШЭ. Мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков – многоаспектное научное направление, включающее в себя комплексное исследование экономических, политических, социальных, а также культурных особенностей развития того или иного региона. На страницах Мониторинга рассматриваются вопросы методологии анализа процессов социально-политической ...
Added: November 23, 2019
Zamyatnina E., В кн.: Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков.Вып. 8.: Волгоград: Учитель, 2017. С. 219–233.
Существует ряд исследований, посвященных взаимосвязи образования и социально-политической дестабилизации, - как в зарубежной, так и в отечественной научной литературе. Эта тема привлекла внимание исследователей во второй половине двадцатого века, и в наше время интерес к ней продолжает расти, но до сих пор по ряду вопросов ученые не пришли к единому мнению. Повышение уровня образованности населения, ...
Added: November 5, 2019
Grinin L. E., Korotayev A., Zeitschrift für Weltgeschichte 2018 Vol. 19 No. 1 P. 13–56
The formation of the Afroeurasian world-system was one of the crucial points of social evolution, starting from which the social evolution rate and effectiveness increased dramatically. In the present article we analyze processes and scales of global integration in historical perspective, starting with the Agrarian Revolution. We connect the main phases of historical globalization with ...
Added: January 11, 2019
Волгоград: Учитель, 2018.
Настоящий ежегодник представляет собой девятый том «Системного мониторинга глобальных и региональных рисков», подготовленный в рамках Программы Института Африки РАН «Дестабилизационные процессы на Ближнем Востоке и в Северной Африке в контексте глобального развития и национальных интересов России» (руководитель – профессор А. В. Коротаев). Мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков – многоаспектное научное направление, включающее в себя комплексное ...
Added: December 26, 2018