Россия под санкциями: теневая экономика – фактор гибкости?

ЭКО. 2023. № 12. С. 30–47.

Simachev Y. V., Fedyunina A., Светова В. А.

The article discusses the phenomenon of the shadow sector's existence in national economies under the influence of economic shocks, particularly in the context of sanctions. Based on international experience, it is argued that the shadow sector does not always grow in response to crises and sanctions. This depends on the nature of the shocks, the sector's industry structure, as well as the authorities' attitudes towards it and changes in regulation. The authors demonstrate that in the Russian economy during periods of structural crises (the 1990s, the 2020 pandemic, sanctions in 2015 and 2022), the impact on the shadow sector was complex and multidirectional. The authors identify a set of conditions under which the shadow sector can mitigate the impact of economic shocks, including: a wide coverage of small businesses, the potential for labor migration between the shadow and formal parts of the economy, low regulatory burden, and the business's ability to adapt organizational models. The authors conclude that relatively soft regulation in the short term could create conditions where, with moderate changes in scale, the shadow sector might become a stabilizing factor under conditions of sanction pressure and a factor for the economy's flexible adaptation to new circumstances.

Keywords: теневая экономика, российская экономика, санкции, shadow economy, sanctions, Russian economy, sanctions effects, эффекты санкций