Поиск паттернов в динамике протестных кампаний: вычислительное моделирование и эмпирический анализ

Социология: методология, методы, математическое моделирование. 2022. № 54-55. С. 129–187.

Жеглов С. А.

In most of current papers devoted to the analysis of protest-repression nexus, the research
design misses the dynamic nature of this nexus, which seems methodologically incorrect. The
analysis of the dynamics allows us to identify the role of various factors influencing the course of
this conflict. The variety of different dynamics of the number of protesters and the dynamics of the
use of repression gives rise to a variety of scenarios for the development of a protest campaign. In
this regard, this paper raises the question of identifying dynamic patterns. At the same time, we
consider both empirical scenarios that have already taken place in real protests, as well as “ideal”,
i.e. arising in theory and capable of serving as guidelines in the analysis of real ones.
To obtain "ideal" scenarios, a theoretical and mathematical model was developed with
various strategies for the reactions of the authorities to the protesters, which we implemented into
the existing computational model of protest mobilization. Based on the data obtained in the course
of computer simulations, firstly, by linear and logistic regressions, the effects of various decision-
making mechanisms on the survival of protests were evaluated, and, secondly, using various
methods of time series cluster analysis, we discovered a number of patterns. For verification, the
same methods of cluster analysis were applied repeatedly on empirical data.

Keywords: линейная регрессия, cluster analysis, кластерный анализ, репрессии, логистическая регрессия, протесты, protests, logistic regression, linear regression, computational modeling, вычислительное моделирование, repressions, протестная кампания, protest campaign