Социально-экономическое и демографическое положение моногородов "красной зоны" Свердловской области: сценарии развития

Научное обозрение. Серия 2: Гуманитарные науки. 2020. № 6. С. 32–54.

Безвербный В. А., Smirnov O., Фомин М. В.

The present analyzes the economic and demographic indicators of monotowns of the Sverdlovsk region with the most difficult socio-economic situation (monotowns of the "red zone") to suggest a scenario forecast of their further development. To achieve this goal, it was supposed to trace the dynamics of the main demographic and economic indicators for 2012-2019. The data of municipal and regional statistics were used. In order to identify the most developed urban settlements, it was decided to conditionally divide them into monotowns of the first group (the most positive statics of indicators) and monotowns of the second group (less positive statics of indicators). In order to draw up a more accurate scenario forecast of the development of each individual settlement, a rating of growth of economic and demographic indicators was introduced, based on which it is possible to track the rate of improvement of municipal statistics after 2016. We also used data from other studies on single-industry towns in the Sverdlovsk region and the Russian Federation as a whole. Pervouralsk and Krasnoturyinsk were the most frequent cities in the first group, and Volchansk and Karpinsk were the least frequent. At the same time, Volchansk had the highest growth rating, while Severouralsk showed the lowest. Ultimately, the results obtained made it possible to divide the monotowns into three groups and suggest their further development according to the three proposed scenarios.

Keywords: моногорода, monotowns, monotowns of the red zone, monotowns of the Sverdlovsk region, моногорода "красной зоны", моногорода Свердловской области