How urban vehicle composition influences population concentrations in Indian cities?: a panel data analysis

Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences. 2026. Vol. 19. P. 1–24.

Tripathi S., Kabra S.

Cities become more productive and enjoyable places to live with improved transportation management. However, most cities in developing countries still lack it. In this context, the present study examines the relationship between the different types of vehicles (measured by passenger and freight vehicles) and urbanization (measured by city population size and density) in India. We also assess whether the relationship is linear or nonlinear. We consider data from 45 cities in India with populations of 1 million or more from 2011 to 2020. The study employs Fixed Effects and Feasible Generalized Least Squares panel data model. The results show that urban population and density are positively associated with private passenger vehicles, particularly two-wheelers, light passenger motor vehicles, and cars. Public and shared transport modes such as buses and omnibuses show negative associations with urban population concentration. Urban population has a negative relationship with freight-related vehicles, especially light motor vehicles for commodities and multi-axled trucks. The results also reveal that, while larger cities have greater transportation infrastructure, the expansion of private vehicles remains more closely associated with within-city population growth over time. Finally, the U-tests show no statistically significant inverse U-shaped relationship between urbanization and vehicle numbers. This indicates that congestion does not decrease or is not mitigated with the availability of inadequate infrastructure. Finally, we suggest several policy options to make Indian cities more compact, inclusive and sustainable through an efficient transport system.

Keywords: urban sociology, urban economics, urban policy, transportation economics, transport geography, Transport Research

Publication based on the results of: Trends and factors of sustainable science and technology development (2025)