Как искать «черных лебедей» высокотехнологического развития: индикативный подход

Государственное управление. Электронный вестник. 2022. № 95. С. 192–208.

Barabashev A. G., Zarochintcev S., Makarov I.

The article presents a mechanism for searching for unexpected, suddenly realized and unavoidable country risks of high-tech development (“black swans” of high-tech development) using an indicative approach to risk analysis; introduces the concept of stepped risk corridors of high-tech development as conventions that establish acceptable risk boundaries. An acceptable corridor of high-tech risks has also been built and its allocation as a test one has been justified. As a result, it is proved that risks become threats, turn into “black swans” for two groups of countries: the leading countries above the corridor, which are characterized by excessively rapid development of high technologies, and the outsider countries below the corridor, in which there is an excessively slow development of high technologies, which leads to vulnerability to external threats of high-tech development. The location of the Russian Federation in this corridor is considered as an example of assessing the country risks of high-tech development using the constructed risk corridor. It is shown that Russia developed in the field of ICT in 2014–2016 faster than average, but at the same time was within the risk corridor. For Russia, excessive acceleration of high-tech development will lead to going beyond the boundaries of the corridor and increasing risks. It would be more reasonable, as argued in the article, to adhere to a strategy of moderate development in order to maintain or somewhat increase the position in the ratings of the basic indices, accompanying technological innovations with a reasonable regulatory policy.

Keywords: метод главных компонент, индексный подход, principal component analysis, indicative evaluation, corridors of risks, risks and security threats, the corridor of acceptable risks, “black swans” of high-tech development, риски и угрозы безопасности, коридор приемлемых рисков, «черные лебеди» высокотехнологического развития, индикативный подход

Publication based on the results of: Formation of a monitoring system for the digital transformation of public administration: organizational, social and technological measurements (2022)