Траектории структурной трансформации: опыт успешных стран-экспортеров

Вопросы экономики. 2021. № 12. С. 48–65.

Gnidchenko A.

In this paper, I identify and examine several success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. I present some detailed facts for the leading countries of structural transformation, and I am the first in social sciences literature to calculate the Fréchet distances between the structural transformation trajectories according to various criteria. The paper introduces the concept of structural transformation trajectory that is defined as the path in the two coordinates – per capita income and one of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports. Based on the brief review of the literature, I select four criteria for the empirical research – an increase in the ratio of exports of capital to consumer products, an enhancement of the export share of high-tech products, a decrease in export concentration, and an expansion of export complexity. In most cases, countries leading structural transformation succeed due to a limited number of specific factors, such as foreign direct investment in a limited number of sectors, participation in the assembly of telecom products, automobiles or similar consumer products, and re-export of products from other countries. However, high per capita income growth rates are typically observed in countries with high coherence of the success criteria for the structural transformation of exports, that is, in countries that made progress on a whole range of criteria.

Keywords: экспорт, траектория, trajectory, structural transformation, структурная трансформация, export, Fréchet distance, расстояние Фреше

Publication based on the results of: Analysis and forecasting of economic dynamics in the context of implementing National development goals for 2030 (2021)