Влияние институциональных факторов на межстрановые потоки прямых иностранных инвестиций

Экономика и математические методы. 2021. Т. 57. № 1. С. 33–42.

Drapkin I. M., Чукавина К. В., Грозных Р. И.

The paper analyses the influence of institutional development level on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The theory suggests that more developed institutions in both home and host countries should increase FDI flows between countries. At the same time existing empirical research often have controversial results. We use the database on bilateral FDI flows for 67 recipient countries and 109 home countries for the years of 2001–2016, covering about 80% of FDI flows of the period. The following indicators of institutional development are considered: voting right, political stability, government efficiency, regulation quality, rule of law and corruption control. Using the principal component analysis, we construct an aggregate index of institutional development for each country in the respective year. In contrast to many related research we consider the endogeneity problem to get the unbiased estimates. Using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method with instrumental variables (IV PPML) and in opposition to many empirical researchers we do not find support to the positive influence of countries’ institutional development on FDI flows. We do not find proof for the hypothesis that increases in institutional distance between countries lead to bilateral FDI shrinking.

Keywords: principal component analysis, FDI gravity model, FDI determinants, institutional determinants of FDI, Poisson pseudo maximum method, гравитационная модель ПИИ, детерминанты ПИИ, институциональные факторы ПИИ, пуассоновский метод псевдомаксимального правдоподобия