Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy

Population and Development Review. 2022. Vol. 48. No. 1. P. 51–73.

Lee R., Mason A., Abrigo M., Aliyev R., Denisenko M. B.

New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections showthat in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 per-centage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDPwill shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) liv-ing standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on childrenand seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards inmany lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the eco-nomic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) pop-ulation aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivityhigher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional,and global economies.

Keywords: global economy, population age structure, economic lifecycle, national transfer accounts, population change

Publication based on the results of: Spatial measurement of demographic dynamics in Russia: long-term and short-term changes in the diversity of human reproduction regimes, migration and demographic structures of the population at the regional level (2022)