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The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy
The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is
analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse
Gas Emissions (LCDS) on decarbonization by increasing the net absorption by forests from forest climate
projects is insufficiently substantiated. The LCDS proposes a wildly optimistic scenario to increase the net
absorption of greenhouse gases by forests up to 1200 million tons of CO2-eq. per year. Here, according to our
calculations, a practical ceiling is approximately 1000 million tons of CO2-eq. per year by 2050 at a constant
volume of forest management. The reason for this discrepancy is the incomplete accounting of forest fire
emissions in the forest greenhouse gas balance and the overestimation of the absorption potential in climate
projects. Achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation may require more decarbonization efforts
based on technology upgrades than is planned in the LCDS. The analysis carried out shows that the stake on
forest-climatic projects to achieve carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation within the framework of the
LCDS probably requires significant adjustment. The revealed differences in the predicted values of the decarbonization
parameters and the uncertainty in the interpretation of forest climate projects and their role in the
LCDS make it necessary to continue the work to find the optimal scenario for the decarbonization of the Russian
Federation.