Рутинность и риски автоматизации на российском рынке труда

Вопросы экономики. 2022. № 8. С. 68–94.

В. Е. Гимпельсон, Р. И. Капелюшников

The study explores routine and non-routine content of job tasks across occupations
in the Russian labor market. Each occupation contains a bundle of job
tasks, which can be routine or non-routine, cognitive or manual. Occupations, in
which most job tasks are routine, are under the risk of automation, and therefore
their future is of concern. Our empirical analysis uses three main data sources
that contain information in the detailed occupational breakdown: on employment,
on the extent of routinization, and on annual labor incomes. This data
set allows to estimate task indices for disaggregated occupations and different
socio-economic groups and also present empirical estimates of wage penalties
and premiums for workers with different job content. The calculations suggest
that the proportion of jobs in which routine tasks tend to prevail is not large
and hardly exceeds 10%. From this follows that a massive substitution of labor
by machines or AI in foreseeable future does not look like a plausible option.
Content of job tasks is expectedly associated with the level of pay: workers with
non-routine cognitive tasks are better rewarded, and non-routine manual tasks
are the most penalized. A polarization scenario feared by some observers does
not seem a likely option in Russia for years to come.

Keywords: рынок труда, Россия, профессии, Russia, автоматизация, labor market, occupations, automatization

Publication based on the results of: Structural Changes in the Labor Market: Results of the Last Decade (2022)