Китай как глобальный драйвер электрификации дорожного транспорта: риски для рынка нефти

ЭКО. 2021. № 9. С. 53–68.

Sinitsyn M.

China is a leader in the transport electrification, COVID-19 didn’t decrise EV sales. This paper assesses the prospects for the promotion of electric vehicles in China, and the impact of this process on oil consumption. It is shown that in the baseline scenario, electric vehicles will displace 0.8 mbd by 2030, and 2.7 mbd by 2040. China can reach oil peak by 2030, and importer’s niches for oil companies will be closed. Until 2025, competition for the Chinese market will intensify between Saudi Arabia, the United States, Libya and Iran. An additional risk to China's successful policy in promoting electric mobility may be a significant increase in the export of cheap electric vehicles, which will undermine the road transport electrification in other countries and bring the global oil peak closer. China’s electrification has large negative effects in the key export markets for Russian oil companies.

Keywords: Китай, China, электромобили, low-carbon paradigm, electric cars, oil demand, russian oil companies, низкоуглеродная парадигма, спрос на нефть, российские нефтяные компании