Global Systems for Sociopolitical Instability Forecasting and Their Efficiency. A Comparative Analysis

Comparative Sociology. 2022. No. 21. P. 64–104.

Korotayev A., Ilya Medvedev, Zinkina J.

This article offers a comparison of sociopolitical instability forecasting systems. It compares systematically their efficiency by correlating their predictions for particular years with actual levels of destabilization in the respective years. It is demonstrated that the predictive capacity of those systems dropped dramatically after 2011. This is shown to be connected with the fact that the Arab Spring in 2011 acted as a trigger for a global phase transition, resulting in the World System making a transition to a qualitatively new phase, with the emergence of new patterns that are not taken into account by forecasting systems developed before its beginning.

Keywords: comparative sociology, Forecasting, Cross-national comparisons, diagnostics of violence, monitoring systems

Publication based on the results of: New revolution wave at the Afrasian instability zone (2022)