Моделирование связей между институциональной и фактической глобализацией в странах мира

Бизнес-информатика. 2021. Т. 15. № 4. С. 61–75.

Kopnova E., Rodionova L.

The paper is devoted to modeling the links between the institutional and actual level of globalization in the countries of the world. Vector models of error correction, quantile regression, and a stochastic frontier model are considered. As a measure of globalization and its components, the KOF-index of globalization system is used, which allows analyzing individual globalization processes in the economy, social sphere and politics. According to the data of 2020, the dynamic relations between the actual and institutional components of globalization are determined, the priority of the institutional component for information and financial globalization is revealed. The example of financial globalization shows the uneven degree of influence of the institutional component on the actual globalization, in particular, its prevailing importance for less globalized countries, indicating the alignment of the degree of internationalization in the global financial system. The degree of effectiveness of the impact of institutional measures together with the overall level of well-being on the actual financial globalization is analyzed. It is shown that the spread across the countries of the world in the efficiency indicator is almost 70%. Almost 10% of countries have a low efficiency of up to 50%. One third of the countries has average efficiency (50-75%), so the share of countries with high efficiency over 75% is about 60%.

Keywords: коинтеграция, quantile regression, квантильная регрессия, cointegration, KOF index of globalization, stochastic frontier model, модель стохастической границы, векторная модель коррекции ошибками, декомпозиция дисперсии ошибки прогноза, vector error correction model, forecast errors variance decomposition, KOF-индекс глобализации