КАК РАДИКАЛЬНЫЙ ИСЛАМИЗМ ВЛИЯЕТ НА ДЕСТАБИЛИЗАЦИЮ В СТРАНАХ АФРАЗИЙСКОЙ МАКРОЗОНЫ НЕСТАБИЛЬНОСТИ

Век глобализации. 2021. № 2. С. 57–74.

Grinin L. E.

In this article the author focuses on some aspects of the long-term impact of Islamism (especially radical Islamism) and in general of the religious factor on possible processes of destabilization in the Afrasian macrozone of instability in the future. This macrozone includes the Sahel region in sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, and the Middle East, including the territory of the former Soviet Central Asia, which is the most unstable zone in the World-System. We believe that the phenomenon of Islamism, as it generates radicalism as its extreme wing, provides an important basis for long-term destabilization. In this regard, supporting moderate Islamism in order to separate it from radical Islamism is one of the most important ways to minimize the risk of radicalism and destabilization of society. The situation in the Sahel region, where Islamism is still largely undeveloped, has been particularly investigated. However, these societies have proven susceptible to radicalism and terrorism, since radicals from the Middle East and North Africa can easily recruit supporters and volunteers, on the one hand, and on the other hand, due to a lack of experience, underdeveloped state apparatus, rapidly growing population, including urban population and some other reasons, they were largely helpless against terrorists. As a result, some of them are becoming bases for the latter. It has been predicted that over time (but not soon) the role of radicalism will begin to diminish in the Middle East and will simultaneously increase in the countries of the Sahel region. Moreover, the latter will occur much more rapidly than the former. The article also examines the situation in societies where Muslims are a minority, namely China and India.

Keywords: Ближний Восток, Middle East, радикализм, дестабилизация, revolutions, destabilization, radicalism, религиозный фактор, революции, радикальный исламизм, Афразийская макрозона нестабильности, умеренный исламизм, radical islamism, moderate islamism, Afrasian macrozone of instability, Sahel region, religious factor, зона Сахеля

Publication based on the results of: Reconfiguration of the regional world order in the "Afrasian" zone of instability (2021)