The integral and synthetic opportunities of the Big History concept, which has been rapidly developing in the late decades, are considered in the article. The conception is close to the approach of universal evolutionism but has its peculiar features which are significant for establishing constructive principles of management, global strategic vision, futures studies, and effective decision-making in the global context. Within Big History framework, social (including spiritual), biological, geological, and astrophysical history are considered as stages of the universal evolutionary process determined by all-pervading vectors of development and by mega-trends. Some general laws from Big Bang to networks of super-reason studied in the frames of this conception. Strategies of managerial, prognostic and entrepreneurial activities are discussed as well.
In the present article some forecasts of technological, political, as well as social and economic development of the world are presented in a systematic manner. The author presents short-term (10–15 years), medium-term (20–50 years) and long-term (50–100 years) forecasts which are based on the theories of long cycles and related technological modes, as well as on the theories of production principles and production revolutions.
The author predicts geopolitical development of the world in the next decade. One of the main charges which globalization faces is that it widens the gap between developed and developing countries and thus dooms the latter to backwardness. The article shows that the real situation is opposite. The author argues that it is just globalization that makes developing countries develop faster than developed ones; the World System core is weakening, while its periphery is strengthening. He explains why globalization would have inevitably caused rapid upsurge of many developing countries and weakening of developed ones. In the coming decade the tendency to convergence of the core and the periphery’ development levels is going to grow. This convergence is a necessary condition for a new technological revolution
Islamism appears one of the most important phenomena of our times and it greatly affects many global processes. In the Muslim world one can hardly find a country where Islamism would not be an influential and stable political factor. It seems impossible to comprehend modern Muslim (especially Arab) societies without taking into account the role of Islamism as simultaneously an ideology, a cultural environment, and a mode of life and guideline to follow. And if one keeps in mind the increasingly large share of the Muslim population in the world, it appears impossible to ignore their impact in current and future globalization trends. All these make the correlation between globalization and Islamism an urgent issue which is, nevertheless, understudied. In the present article we would like to outline some patterns and landmarks of this mutual interaction.
Currently, Islamism is one of the most complicated social phenomena; it is a multi-faceted, changing and heterogeneous movement within whose framework there unfolds an intensive ideological and political struggle. We hope the present article will help the reader to obtain some idea about this important phenomenon of the modern world whose development involves interests of billions of people of all countries, religions and views. At that, we emphasize that it is vital to distinguish between radical and moderate types of Islamism; the latter is promising with respect to becoming a positive and promising wing of political system in Muslim countries. We suppose that it is impossible to eliminate the dangers of radical and terrorist Islamism only by force. One may hope to achieve this goal if to separate it from moderate Islamism while the latter should become more respectable, open and involved in common political life.
The paper investigates the historical aspect of globalization and analyzes the main integration processes that have been taking place during the last several thousand years. In this respect the history of Afroeurasian world-system formation, development and its transformation into contemporary planetary World-System gives large possibilities. That is why this research has been made in the framework of the world-system approach. In the present paper the focus lies on the historically huge scale of the boundary system links that long before the Great Geographic discoveries had become inter(supra)continental. With the account of this scale the paper solves the problem whether and to what extent can the processes and connections within Afroeurasian world-system be considered global.
The article reveals the merits and shortcomings of the Chinese economic development model as well as the causes for an inevitable slowdown of its growth. It is shown that although the technological and investment levels of the Chinese economy grows, it remains generally extensive and based on the consumption of excessive numbers of various resources and capital.
It is also shown that even if China surpasses the USA in GDP still it will be unable to become the world full-fledged leader as China will fail to fulfil many of the USA’s leadership functions (ideological, military, technological, innovational, monetary etc.). Besides, China’s weakness with respect to observance of human rights, to environment pollution, to the fact that more its citizens consider the Western values to be of prior importance as well as a number of other circumstances will prevent China from becoming the World-System leader.
The present article considers the process of the formation, development and weakening of the world order based on the American hegemony. The ori-gins of the current world order are analyzed. The article presents the analysis of the characteristic features and methods applied by the USA to maintain their position in the world. The author shows how globalization has become more favorable for developing countries than for the developed ones. The gradually forming conviction in the inevitable weakening of the US leadership positions is also analyzed. The article describes the characteristics of the current situation in international relations as a situation of a started reconfiguration of the World-System. The latter should mean the coming of the epoch of turbulence and formation of new coalitions. There will take place a transition to a more sustainable world order which will be a difficult task. The second article will consider the direction and ways of the formation of this new world order, the possible principles and mechanisms of its establishment.
The author argues what and why should change for the formation of the new world order and what will be the directions and patterns of the formation of this new world order as well as what will be the foundations of this world order and possible mechanisms of its establishment. The author proceeds from the idea that in recent years there has started a reconfiguration of the World System which will bring a rather long-term period of turbulence but also a certain transition from an active formation of new coalitions to a new and more stable world order whose establishment will proceed with certain difficulties.
The authors pay attention to a number of major problems that a person faces in his everyday life under the influence of the Digital Revolution. In contrast to the great challenges, typical of the scale of states and nations, the authors suggest focusing on the existential side of the changes. In particular, emphasis is placed on the features of the educational process, work activity, consumption and lifestyle of a person surrounded by technologies and gadgets. The authors pay attention to the complexity and ambivalence of development processes, which entail both unprecedented benefits, transforming a person's life into the likeness of Eden, and the existential shock and fear of future changes.