Dynamic modeling of the impact of socio-economic restrictions and behavior on COVID-19 outbreak

Eurasian Economic Review. 2021. No. 11. P. 469–487.

Pomazanov M. V., Arkhipov A., Karminsky A. M.

The COVID-19 pandemic had an enormous social and economic impact on societies
in 2020. The epidemiological situation is evolving on a daily basis, and the methodology
of how to evaluate the impact of the pandemic and the severity of its consequences
is lacking. The only available high-frequency data now are the number of
people who have contracted the illness, and the restrictive measures that authorities
have implemented to contain the outbreak. The most important question now
is whether authorities can prevent subsequent waves. The contribution of the paper
is a dynamic model of COVID-19 outbreaks, on the basis of which we investigated
the possible impact of the socio-economic behavior and restrictions on its waves.
To build the model, a large database for different countries with a wide range of
economic and social institutions was collected. We give a detailed description of
the model and a comparison of the results with trajectories of the outbreaks in the
countries under consideration. The proposed model describes the empirical results
and can be used for timely and contemporary predictions of the stages of pandemics.
Despite this, the model needs future development and verification because the
pandemic is not over, and the accumulation of empirical information continues. Yet
the model might also be useful as a basis for researching the impacts of other socioeconomic
and medical actions for containing pandemics.

Keywords: contagion, dynamic model, Infection model, Empirical information, COVID-19