Демографическое будущее Китая

Демографическое обозрение. 2020. Т. 7. № 4. С. 149–165.

Seliverstova Y.

The article presents a forecast of the demographic situation in China until 2050. The author analyzes current demographic changes such as the rapid aging of the population, decrease in the birth rate,  reduction in the workforce, gender imbalance,  spread of nuclear families, internal labor migration and growth of urbanization. The article shows that the reason for the existing social problems lies in birth control. Family planning policy was actively promoted for 35 years, until 2016. During this time, the spread of small families, partly childless behavior and modern consumer society changed the traditional family and its functions. An analysis of existing forecasts shows that if the key parameters of demographic development are maintained, China’s population will soon reach a maximum of 1.45 billion. Within 8 years the potential growth will be exhausted and there will occur a natural decline of the population. With the increasing numbers of older people and the growth of life expectancy, the working-age population will continue to shrink and the number of children under the age of 14 years will decrease even further. The demographic dividend for the PRC will be over. The economic slowdown will be accompanied by a significant burden on the social security, health care and city registration systems. In order to effectively counter the growing crisis, the government must focus more on solving the problems of rural residents, reforming the pension and health insurance systems, stimulating fertility and supporting families with children.

Keywords: старение населения, урбанизация, urbanization, China, КНР, контроль над рождаемостью, birth control, demographic characteristic, падение рождаемости, decline in fertility, демографические характеристики, aging of population