Характеристика неопределенностей в оценках Межправительственной группы экспертов по изменению климата

Фундаментальная и прикладная климатология. 2019. Т. 1. С. 76–96.

Semenov S., Инсаров Г. Э., Мендес К. Л.

For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.For the correct use of the results of scientific assessments in the decision-making process, it is necessary to have information about their uncertainties. The evolution of approaches to assessing the uncertainty of statements (findings, conclusions) of reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is considered. The main recommendations of the IPCC guidance notes of 2000 and 2010 on characterizing the uncertainties are presented. Further development of the approaches in two directions is proposed. First, in relation to the analysis of independence of quantitative data used in the estimation of uncertainty in their synthesis. Second, in relation to the objective assessment of the degree of certainty of qualitative statements.

Keywords: изменение климата, uncertainties, неопределенности, quantitative assessment, последствия, количественные оценки, consequences, climate change, qualitative assessment, IPCC, качественные оценки, МГЭИК