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Демографическая ситуация и социально-экономическое положение регионов в апреле 2020 г. (по результатам регулярного Мониторинга ИНСАП РАНХиГС)
The number of births in January-April 2020 is 5.6% lower than in the same period of 2019, the absolute mortality rate is 3% lower. The natural decline in Russia’s population accounts to 160,300 people. During the period of quarantine the birth and mortality data were under-reported; therefore the figures will be adjusted in the future. In April 2020, 2,712 deaths (1.8%) were registered with COVID-19 as the main or associated cause of death.
The growth of Russia’s population due to migration in January-April 2020 was the lowest for the last decade. Migration compensated 24.6% of the natural decline of the population. Quarantine restrictions had affected not only migration itself but also the place of residence change registration process. The number of in-country migrations recorded by Rosstat decreased by 20% as compared to January-April 2019.
By the beginning of the summer of 2020, there were 4.08 million migrant workers in Russia – 8% fewer than a year ago. The most significant reduction is from Ukraine (by a third) and Moldova (by a quarter). Declining share of migrants working legally will be the main problem after the quarantine stage of the labor market.
A sharp decline in tax revenues has occurred in the vast majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. The April 2020 consolidated regional budgets loss accounts for almost 3% of 2019 annual revenues. The registered unemployment rate increased by a factor of 1.5 to 2, being the highest in large and most developed regions with more pronounced service sector employment. Retail trade turnover fell by more than a quarter. Paid services consumption fell even deeper (by 38%) not only due to quarantine restrictions but also to growing housing and utility services arrears. There was an industrial decline in 2/3 of the regions in April, while in January-April housing construction has been reduced in 2/3 of regions.
A «child» mortgage program is targeted on families who gave birth to a second or subsequent child after January 1, 2018. As for April 2020 demand for the program accounts for 4% of the target group. It is higher in the North-Western, Central and Volga Federal Districts. The demand is weaker in the most regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, where the people are less likely to take any mortgages.
The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme.