Новая демографическая политика 2016 г. в КНР: «одна семья – два ребенка».

Демографическое обозрение. 2017. Т. 4. № 2. С. 53–64.

Куприянова Юлия Андреевна, Yanishevskaya A.

This article deals with the new China’s “Family Planning” policy in 2016, which is extremely necessary considering economy and social problems in modern China, but has problems with it’s implementation. Since China nowadays is very close to “low fertility trap”, it is extremely important to increase fertility rates. However, despite the easing in the policy of childbirth control, most Chinese families prefer to have one child. Due to ecological reasons, problem of “eldering” women, who might have no children because of medical reasons, the number of women of childbearing age is decreasing, which has negative influence on fertility rate. Based on the analysis of nowadays demographic situation (low fertility rate, declining population growth), current reproductive behavior in Chinese families (low individual need for a large number of children, DINK families), the cost of rising of a child (which is quite expensive) it is possible to affirm with a high degree of probability that the new policy won’t help to achieve necessary birth rate level in the nearest future, which is the subject of discussion in the current article.   

Keywords: демографическая политика, бездетность, demographic crisis, birth control, контроль рождаемости, level of birth rate, People's Republic of China, Политика руководства КНР в области социально-экономического развития регионов в начале XXI века, demographic change