The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective

Switzerland : Springer, 2020.

Academic editor: Korotayev A., D. LePoire

This book introduces a 'Big History' perspective to understand the acceleration of social, technological and economic trends towards a near-term singularity, marking a radical turning point in the evolution of our planet. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through global history and highlights major historical transformations throughout the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. The authors pursue an interdisciplinary approach, also drawing on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology, to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues on how it might progress. 
The contributions gathered here are divided into five parts, the first of which studies historical mega-trends in relation to a variety of aspects including technology, population, energy, and information. The second part is dedicated to a variety of models that can help understand the potential mechanisms, and support extrapolation. In turn, the third part explores various potential future scenarios, along with the paths and decisions that are required. The fourth part presents philosophical perspectives on the potential deeper meaning and implications of the trend towards singularity, while the fifth and last part discusses the implications of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars from various disciplines interested in historical trends, technological change and evolutionary processes. 

Chapters

The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis

Korotayev A., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. Ch. 2 P. 19–75.

The idea that in the near future we should expect “the Singularity” has become quite popular recently, primarily thanks to the activities of Google technical director in the field of machine training Raymond Kurzweil and his book The Singularity Is Near (2005). It is shown that the mathematical analysis of the series of events (described by Kurzweil ...

Added: January 27, 2020

How Singular Is the Twenty-First-Century Singularity?

Korotayev A., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. Ch. 26 P. 571–595.

This chapter discusses in some detail the possibility of the Singularity being a product of biased human perception described by the Weber–Fechner law. It is shown that though the Weber–Fechner effect can produce series with a hyperbolic shape, the hyperbolic acceleration pattern with the twenty-first century Singularity detected in Panov and Modis–Kurzweil series is explained first ...

Added: January 27, 2020

About the Singularity in Biological and Social Evolution

Malkov S. Y., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. Ch. 23 P. 517–534.

Using mathematical modeling, we consider the phenomenon of singularity in the biological and social history. It is shown that hyperbolic trends in biological and social evolution can be explained by transitional processes that accompany the expansion of ecological niches due to periodically occurring revolutionary innovations. During these periods, strong positive feedbacks are actualized, leading to ...

Added: February 3, 2020

Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity

Grinin L. E., Grinin A., Korotayev A., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. Ch. 15 P. 287–344.

In this chapter, we consider the process of technological progress presenting one of the options for measuring its speed throughout the entire historical process. We find that the general dynamics of accelerating technological growth over the past 40 thousand years can be described with amazing accuracy (R2 = 0.99) using the following simplest hyperbolic equation: yt = C/t0 − t, where yt is the ...

Added: February 3, 2020

The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective: An Overview

Panov A., LePoire D., Korotayev A., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. Ch. 1 P. 1–18.

This introductory chapter discusses the overall place of the twenty-first-century Singularity within the overall Big History. It is shown that to place the accelerating trend of complexity in the context of Big History, we need to distinguish the two forms (arms) of megaevolution so far in the universe. The first arm of evolution is the ...

Added: February 3, 2020

Conclusion

Korotayev A., LePoire D., , in: The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective.: Switzerland: Springer, 2020. P. 599–620.

This concluding chapter summarizes major findings of the present collective monograph. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through history and the major historical transformations through the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. It draws on the concepts from physics and evolutionary biology to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration ...

Added: November 13, 2020

Keywords: singularity, Big History, technological change, evolutionary processes, global futures, historical trends

Publication based on the results of: Instruments and Factors of Socio-Political Destabilization in the Middle East and Central Asia (2019)