Региональный анализ демографических и социальных итогов 2018 г. (по результатам регулярного Мониторинга ИНСАП РАНХиГС)

Экономическое развитие России. 2019. Т. 26. № 4. С. 75–91.

Н. В. Зубаревич, Хасанова Р. Р., Кузнецова П. О., Флоринская Ю. Ф.

In 2018, natural decline in population of Russia constituted 218.4 thousand people. This situation resulted from a reduction of birth rate and a slight reduction of mortality compared to that in previous year. Current life expectancy is 72.84 years for any gender, 67.66 years for men and 77.87 years for women. Birth rate is equal to 1.597 per one woman in reproductive age. Net migration fell down to 124.9 thousand people in 2018 and did not compensate the decline of population. Temporary migration has slightly changed as well as number of labor migrants in the Russian Federation. Most foreign employees are from CIS countries with growing share from Central Asia and less migrants from western countries of CIS. Regional overview of 2018 social results is quite contradictive. Negative dynamics of housing construction and household income was going on in most regions. Growth of retail trade was supported by intensive bank crediting of households especially in the resource mining regions and underdeveloped national republics. For regional budgets 2018 year was more positive, however the effect seems to be temporary. 22% increase of budget transfers, the rise of the world raw materials prices and its taxes contributed to the growth of income. Social priorities, healthcare and education, dominated in the dynamics of expenditures. However, this was the result of implementation of “wage” Executive Orders of the President. Regional gaps in social protection expenditures increased. While for all regions except Moscow expenditures on social payments minus compulsory medical insurance for unemployed population did not increased in real terms. In Moscow budget expenditures on social payments enlarged by 30%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: рождаемость, смертность, миграция, потребление алкоголя, Региональный анализ, социальные показатели, расходы бюджетов