Обеспеченность бюджетными местами региональных систем высшего образования с учетом демографических трендов

Университетское управление: практика и анализ. 2019. Т. 23. № 4. С. 32–45.

Gabdrakhmanov N., Leshukov O., Platonova D.

the article is devoted to the issue of provision of regional systems of higher education with public funding per students, how much the current system of distribution of public funding corresponds to demographic trends and the forecast of the number of potential students. The forecast of the population at the age group of 17-21 years showed that starting from 2019, the Russian higher education system will be subject of increased pressure from applicants. This is caused by the expiration of “demographic hole” of the 1990s. The current guarantee of financial support for higher education at the expense of public funds (at least 800 students for every 10,000 people from the age group of 17-30 years old) can be carried out until 2024 without increasing the volume of public funding. However, the implementation of this standard is provided only by reducing the age cohort of 25-30 years. The ratio of the predicted values of the number of potential applicants and the importance of demand for regional higher education systems allowed us to identify the donor regions, the deficit regions and the recipient regions. An analysis of the current distribution of public funded places between regions of Russia made it possible to identify territorial imbalances that negatively affect the ability of school graduates to receive higher education free of charge in their home region.

Keywords: демография, высшее образование, бюджетные места, demography, контрольные цифры приема, возрастная структура населения, regional differences, доступность высшего образования, accessibility of higher education, higher education, age structure, региональные различия, public funded places