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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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On Mini-Publics in Deliberative Democracies: Inefficient Instrument or Arendt’s “Oasis of Freedom”?

Russian Sociological Review. 2018. Vol. 17. No. 4. P. 103–116.
Shablinsky A.

According to the standard of legitimacy provided by di erent theorists of deliberative de- mocracy, a collective decision could be de ned as legitimate if it is rendered in accordance with a collective deliberative procedure by citizens who will be subject to this decision. In the beginning of the noughties, deliberationists became more concerned with the implementa- tion of this ideal so that citizens could have more possibilities to take part in deliberative collective decision-making. One of the institutions which were thought to better involve citi- zens in deliberative decision-making and to ensure the legitimacy of outcomes were mini- publics. Mini-publics are deliberative forums composed of lay citizens who communicate about questions of the political agenda. However, using mini-publics can eventually lead to situations when citizens are “bypassed” in the process of collective decision-making. So, in our article, rstly, we will brie y discuss the standard of legitimacy provided by the theorists of deliberative democracy and the concept of mini-publics. Secondly, we will analyze how us- ing mini-publics can lead to the exclusion of citizens from the process of collective deliberative decision-making. Finally, we will consider how Arendt’s theory of councils can be used to transform the concept of mini-publics so these institutions will lead not to a “bypassing” of the people, but to the more inclusive process of collective deliberative decision-making.

Research target: Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration Philosophy, Ethics, and Religious Studies Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology
Priority areas: sociology humanitarian
Language: English
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Text on another site
Keywords: советыполитическое участиеparticipationлегитимностьlegitimacyХанна Арендтdeliberative democracyделиберативная демократияHannah Arendtmini-publicscouncilsмини-публики
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