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The Role of Vocational Education in the Formation of Career Trajectories in Russia
Abstract: The paper analyses the role of vocational education in formation of professional trajectories of Russian employed
population during the period 2005-2015. Based on longitudinal data we explore the differences between career paths of
workers that had the experience of vocational training and workers without such experience. We contribute the debate
regarding vocational training and its role in innovation and economic development utilizing methodology of sequence
analysis and Markov chains with long memory (mixture transition distribution models (MTD)). MTD models suggest the
analysis of categorical data sequences instead of quantitative data that is standard for this kind of research. Such
methodological approach allows not only estimating casual effects of participation in vocational education programs on
the wage level, but exploring how vocational training influences the whole career path. Our findings suggest that those
workers who participate in vocational training have lower probability of different negative events in their careers including
job loss. Moreover, mixture transitions distribution models suggest that for such workers the current career status
determined by longer history of previous career events than for those employees that had not any experience of
participation in vocational education programs. These results give the evidence that vocational education is important
factor of success on the labour market, providing greater flexibility of career paths that is crucial in innovation
development of the labour market and economy as a whole. Findings of the study also have important policy implications.
Importance of vocational training on individual level suggests that investment in vocational education on societal level will
bring positive returns. This kind of education provides the flexibility of individuals on the labour market, through vocational
training workers obtain new skills and knowledge that allows them utilizing new technologies and innovations.
Development of vocational education may be considered as policy-making instrument that can generate positive economic
outcomes.