Operative Scheme for Surface Air Temperature and Humidity Short-Range Complex Forecasting

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2018. No. 8. P. 495–505.

Bagrov A., Bykov P. L., Gordin V. A.

he operative weather forecasts with lead-time 3-5 days from best forecasting hydrodynamic models as well as the archives of the models’ forecasts and of the meteorological measurements in 2800 cities of Russia, East Europe, and Central Asia are used. The output of our scheme includes the air temperature forecast for the standard observations moments with period 6 hours and extreme temperatures for lead times from 12 up 120 hours.

The results of the operative forecasting (about ~280 Russian and Belarus cities and separately 58 cities of Central Asia) are representing on the site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time. Besides temperature we represent on the site amount of precipitation, wind (including gusts), and dew-point temperature with lead-time from 12 up 72 hours with period 6 hours.

The errors of the complex forecast of the temperature and of the dew-point temperature in the standard moments as well as extreme temperature with various lead-times for the period from July 2014 up to June 2017 are represented. The accuracy of these forecasts for the standard moments is much better that the forecasts’ accuracy of the original hydrodynamic models. The estimations for our forecasting extreme temperature are compared with the similar results of the forecasting scheme “weather element computation” (WEC) and with forecasts of meteorologists of regional meteorological centers.

Keywords: forecasting model, air temperature, error of forecast, lead-time, extreme temperature, dew-point temperature

Publication based on the results of: Математические модели. Дифференциальные уравнения и большие массивы информации. Аналитические и вычислительные методы. Практические приложения (2018)