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Regular version of the site
Of all publications in the section: 8
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Article
Bagrov A., Gordin V. A., Bykov P. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2014. No. 5. P. 283-291.

The evaluations of the forecasts of surface air temperature and precipitation for the period July 2010 - June 2013 are presented. The forecasting of surface air temperature at 5 days and precipitation at 3 days are considered. Our complex statistical scheme uses the results of the best foreign global schemes, regional scheme COSMO-RU7.  The joint statistical accounting of different kind of the systematic errors in the complex forecasting allows to exceed the quality of every original forecasting schemes. The complex forecasting scheme is operative, and its results are published on the website of the Hydrometeorological center of Russia everyday at 9 : 15 a.m. Moscow time. The website also provides forecasts of extremal temperatures, temperature dew-point and wind velocity about the earth surface.

Added: Dec 7, 2013
Article
Bagrov A., Bykov P. L., Gordin V. A. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2018. No. 8. P. 495-505.

he operative weather forecasts with lead-time 3-5 days from best forecasting hydrodynamic models as well as the archives of the models’ forecasts and of the meteorological measurements in 2800 cities of Russia, East Europe, and Central Asia are used. The output of our scheme includes the air temperature forecast for the standard observations moments with period 6 hours and extreme temperatures for lead times from 12 up 120 hours.

The results of the operative forecasting (about ~280 Russian and Belarus cities and separately 58 cities of Central Asia) are representing on the site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time. Besides temperature we represent on the site amount of precipitation, wind (including gusts), and dew-point temperature with lead-time from 12 up 72 hours with period 6 hours.

The errors of the complex forecast of the temperature and of the dew-point temperature in the standard moments as well as extreme temperature with various lead-times for the period from July 2014 up to June 2017 are represented. The accuracy of these forecasts for the standard moments is much better that the forecasts’ accuracy of the original hydrodynamic models. The estimations for our forecasting extreme temperature are compared with the similar results of the forecasting scheme “weather element computation” (WEC) and with forecasts of meteorologists of regional meteorological centers.

Added: Jul 14, 2018
Article
Bagrov A., Bykov P. L., Gordin V. A. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2018. Vol. 43. No. 7. P. 436-443.

We describe our scheme of the operative wind (and possible gusts) forecasts with lead-time up to 3 days and evaluate its success. It uses joint statistical processing of the results of several best operative forecasting hydrodynamic weather forecasting schemes. This approach allowed to reduce the error with respect to original schemes. The operative forecast and its evaluation for the period 2014 – 2016 y. realized for ~ 2800 cities of Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia. The update results are representing on the official site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time.

Added: Jul 14, 2018
Article
Gordin V. A., Bykov P. L., Tarasova L. et al. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2017. No. 6. P. 403-414.

The archives of measurements at a network of stations of Roshydromet stocks of available water capacity and satellite measurements of relative soil moisture topsoil according with the instrument ASCAT (MetOp satellites) were used. The estimation of the statistical structure of the fields of available water capacity in the upper 10- and 20-cm soil layers, correlations were found between the data of remote sensing (RS) data and agrometeorological stations. Developed procedure for automated pre-control ground-based measurements. The algorithm is statistically optimal transform of remote sensing data in estimating the amount of moisture in the upper soil layer.

Added: Dec 15, 2016
Article
Семенов С. М., Попова Е. Н., Попов И. О. Метеорология и гидрология. 2018. Т. 6. С. 98-105.

Calculations of the climatic values ​​of the annual sum of active air temperatures in the surface layer and the amount of precipitation for the growing season (May - September) in Russia and neighboring countries for two time periods - 1951-1970 and 1991-2010 were carried out. Using statistical procedures, the reliability of the differences in the values ​​of these parameters for the periods under consideration is shown. The sum of active temperatures significantly increased practically throughout the entire territory of Russia, with the exception of some Arctic and Far Eastern regions. Changes in the amount of precipitation during the growing season are noticeably heterogeneous in space.

Added: Oct 28, 2020
Article
Халявин А., Гордин В. А. Метеорология и гидрология. 2007. № 10. С. 55-65.
Added: Dec 24, 2008
Article
Багров А. Н., Быков Ф. Л., Гордин В. А. Метеорология и гидрология. 2018. № 7. С. 19-28.

The input of our scheme includes the results of several operative hydrodynamic weather forecasting schemes with lead-time 3-5 days. It uses also the archives of these forecasts and the measurements in ~2200 cities of Russia, Belarus, and republics of Central Asia.

The output of our scheme: forecast wind velocity (including possible wind gusts) for lead-times up to 3 days. The results of our operative scheme are demonstrated on the site of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia at 8.30 am and pm Moscow time. The list of input hydrodynamic schemes may be varied. The exactness of the submitted scheme is preferable with respect to input hydrodynamic schemes. The evaluations of the various schemes’ error for 2014-2016 y. are demonstrated.

Added: Sep 18, 2017
Article
Багров А. Н., Быков Ф. Л., Гордин В. А. Метеорология и гидрология. 2018. № 8.

The following input data were used by our scheme: the operative weather forecasts with lead-time 3-5 days from several best forecasting hydrodynamic models. Also our scheme uses the archives of these models’ forecasts and of the meteorological measurements in 2800 cities of Russia, East Europe, and Central Asia. The list of the original hydrodynamic schemes can vary. The output of our scheme includes the air temperature forecast for the standard observations moments with period 6 hours and extreme temperatures for lead times from 12 up 120 hours.

The results of the operative forecasting (about ~280 Russian and Belarusian cities and separately 58 localities of Central Asia) are representing on the site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time. Besides temperature we represent on the site amount of precipitation, wind (including gusts), and dew-point temperature with lead-time from 12 up 72 hours with period 6 hours.

We estimate the errors of the complex forecast of the temperature and of the dew-point temperature in the standard moments as well as extreme temperature with various lead-times during the period from June 2014 up to June 2017. Also we compare the accuracy of our operative version (it was improved during the period) with the accuracy of the last version of the forecasting. The accuracy of these forecasts for the standard moments is much better that the forecasts of the original hydrodynamic models. Also we compare the estimations for our forecasting extreme temperature with the similar results of the forecasting scheme “weather element computation” (WEC) and with forecasts of meteorologists of regional meteorological centers.

Added: Dec 14, 2017