Схема оперативного краткосрочного комплексного прогноза приземной температуры и влажности воздуха

Метеорология и гидрология. 2018. № 8.

Bagrov A., Bykov P. L., Gordin V. A.

The following input data were used by our scheme: the operative weather forecasts with lead-time 3-5 days from several best forecasting hydrodynamic models. Also our scheme uses the archives of these models’ forecasts and of the meteorological measurements in 2800 cities of Russia, East Europe, and Central Asia. The list of the original hydrodynamic schemes can vary. The output of our scheme includes the air temperature forecast for the standard observations moments with period 6 hours and extreme temperatures for lead times from 12 up 120 hours.

The results of the operative forecasting (about ~280 Russian and Belarusian cities and separately 58 localities of Central Asia) are representing on the site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time. Besides temperature we represent on the site amount of precipitation, wind (including gusts), and dew-point temperature with lead-time from 12 up 72 hours with period 6 hours.

We estimate the errors of the complex forecast of the temperature and of the dew-point temperature in the standard moments as well as extreme temperature with various lead-times during the period from June 2014 up to June 2017. Also we compare the accuracy of our operative version (it was improved during the period) with the accuracy of the last version of the forecasting. The accuracy of these forecasts for the standard moments is much better that the forecasts of the original hydrodynamic models. Also we compare the estimations for our forecasting extreme temperature with the similar results of the forecasting scheme “weather element computation” (WEC) and with forecasts of meteorologists of regional meteorological centers.

Keywords: forecasting model, прогностическая модель, air temperature, error of forecast, lead-time, extreme temperature, dew-point temperature, температура воздуха, погрешность прогноза, заблаговременность, экстремальная температура, температура точки росы

Publication based on the results of: Математические модели. Дифференциальные уравнения и большие массивы информации. Аналитические и вычислительные методы. Практические приложения (2018)