Межрегиональная миграция молодежи в России: комплексный анализ демографической статистики

Вопросы образования. 2016. Т. 13. № 3. С. 169–203.

Kashnitsky I. S., Mkrtchyan N. V., Leshukov O.

Not dissimilar to many other countries, migration in Russia has a pronounced age-dependent pattern with the peak intensity at the age when people obtain a professional education. In this paper, we analyze migration intensity at student age (17–21) using three sources of demographic data with due regard for their key opportunities and limitations. We compare the migration attractiveness of Russian regions in three ways: (1) applying APC analysis to registration data, separately for two periods: 2003–2010 and 2011–2013; the reason for sampling these two periods is because there was a significant change in the migration statistics collection practices in 2011; (2) using the age-shift method to analyze the data of the 2002 and 2010 Russian Censuses; we offer a way to refine the census data by discarding the non-migration-related changes in the age-sex structure; (3) using information about the average ratio of full-time university enrolments to the number of high school graduates in the academic years 2012/13 and 2013/14 across the regions. Based on the four indicators of migration intensity (intercensal estimates, statistical records for the two periods, and the graduate-enrolment ratio), we develop a ranking of the regions of Russia in migration attractiveness for young adults. A position in this ranking depends not only on the level of higher education development in a region but also on the consistent patterns of interregional migration in Russia. The regions in the European part of the country have a much higher chance of attracting student migrants.

Keywords: миграционный прирост, учебная миграция, Youth migration, миграция молодежи, метод возрастной передвижки, educational migration, positive net migration, age-period-cohort analysis, age-shift method, rating of region attractiveness, когортно-компонентный анализ, рейтинг привлекательности регионов для студентов

Publication based on the results of: Migrants in a metropolis: Opportunities for socioeconomic integration in the city. Comparative analysis. Russian and international experience (2016)